25% chance of Sensex hitting 1 lakh in next 1 year: Morgan Stanley's Ridham Desai

Morgan Stanley's Ridham Desai pegs a 25% probability of the Sensex hitting 1 lakh within the next year, while retaining a base case target of 89,000 by June 2027, implying roughly 15% upside from current levels. The brokerage is overweight on financials, consumer discretionary and industrials, and underweight on energy, materials, utilities and healthcare, projecting Sensex earnings to compound at 16% annually through FY29, rising to 19% in the bull case. A bear case scenario of 66,000 is also assigned a 25% probability, with the firm's investment-to-GDP ratio seen climbing to 37.5% over the next five years.