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Reaction Lab

How stocks move after corporate disclosures — distribution-first, signal-aware, and honest about coverage. Point the lens at the whole market or one company.
Green / red is the direction of the price move — never the goodness of the news.

How Indian stocks have actually moved after their NSE and BSE filings, measured from prices, not predicted. Across 727,589 filings with a next-day price reaction since Apr 2024, the median next-day move was −0.20% and half of all moves fell between −2.6% and +2.3%; 46% of the stocks closed higher. Filter by announcement type or impact, or point the lab at one company.

Filings tracked
814,842
Apr 2024 – Oct 2026 · NSE & BSE
With a reaction row
812,073
100% of filings · 727,589 with a next-day return
No next-day return
~11%
12,217 too recent · 72,267 didn't trade · 2,769 not priceable — not a 0%
Carry a signal
23.4%
the rare, meaningful events
Impact
Basis
727,589filings with a next-day reaction match · market-wide
01

The realistic move

— what one filing typically does
Distribution of the next-day move · current filter
n 727,589 · next-day return

How to read it: the grey box is the everyday range (middle 50% of filings); the navy line is the typical move (median); the red & green ends are the rare worst-5% / best-5% moves. Zero is just a reference — not the average.

0% reference−7.5%−2.6%median −0.20%+2.3%+9.5%P5 · worst 5%P25P75P95 · best 5%
Grey box — everyday range (mid 50%)Navy line — median (typical move)Red — downside · worst 5%Green — upside · best 5%
Median move
−0.20%
a non-event
Hit rate · % up
46%
≈ coin-flip
Realistic band · P25–P75
−2.6% / +2.3%
middle 50%
Notable · P5 / P95
−7.5% / +9.5%
1-in-20 each side
02

The path over time

— a cone that widens, not a single line
Reaction curve · 5 min → 3 months · percentile fan
minutes from the announcement price · days from the prior close

How to read it: the shaded fan is the spread of outcomes at each horizon — the dark band is the everyday range (P25–P75), the light band the notable tails (P5–P95), the navy line the median. It widens with time because uncertainty compounds.

market drift + survivorshipde-emphasised — far from the filing+30%0%−21%5mReaction day5d15d1m3mn 634kn 730kn 722kn 707kn 696kn 625k
Everyday range · P25–P75Notable tails · P5–P95Median path
The minute points are measured from the announcement price; the daily ones from the close before the filing. For after-market filings the 5m / 10m point is measured off the next session's open — it's the overnight gap (~3.5× a live tick), not an instant reaction. Beyond ~15 days the move is market drift & survivorship, not the filing — so we de-emphasise it.

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