Aluminium producers poised to strike gold with firm prices

Aluminium prices remain firm above pre-war levels despite a 12% pullback from the early-June peak of over $3,850 per tonne on the LME, supported by China production caps and Guinea's proposed bauxite export curbs. The global aluminium market recorded a deficit of 0.15 mt in 2025, while India's domestic aluminium market is growing at a 12% CAGR between FY24 and FY26, pointing to a favourable earnings outlook for Hindalco Industries, Nalco, and the newly demerged Vedanta Aluminium Metal. Nalco's 1 million-tonne alumina refinery is expected to begin commercial production by November, and a weak rupee is set to improve export realizations for domestic producers.