Brent below $80 to sustain OMC earnings recovery

Brent crude prices below $80 are sustaining a sharp earnings recovery for state-owned oil marketing companies, with per-litre operating earnings and integrated margins more than doubling from historical averages. Crude has plunged 35 percent from the April peak of $120, and at sub-$75 Brent with current refining cracks, integrated margins stand at about ₹26/litre for petrol and ₹27/litre for diesel versus a normalised ₹11-12/litre, lifting annual integrated earnings to roughly ₹4 lakh crore from ₹1.8 lakh crore. Equirus Securities estimates OMCs could recoup cumulative under-recoveries of ₹2.2 lakh crore in around 12 months if crude and refining margins hold, though retail fuel price cuts or excise duty hikes could offset part of the benefit.