Ceasefire hopes between US and Iran drag oil prices lower: What lies ahead?

Oil prices have declined on fading supply disruption fears as US-Iran ceasefire negotiations progressed, with shipping through the Strait of Hormuz gradually normalizing. However, uncertainty persists as no definitive deal has been reached, and risks of a supply glut remain if delayed cargoes enter markets alongside steady production, especially with the UAE's exit from OPEC. India, which imports over 85% of its crude requirements, stands to benefit significantly through a lower import bill, improved current account balance, reduced inflationary pressure, and greater RBI rate-setting flexibility.