Crude tumbles from $113 to $83, but relief for India will have to wait

Brent crude has fallen 27% from its May 2026 peak of $113.60 to about $83 a barrel following reports of a potential US-Iran peace deal, though it remains 12% above pre-conflict levels of $74. Despite the price retreat, India's inflation is expected to stay sticky as producers pass on earlier cost increases, and state fuel retailers' losses make near-term pump price cuts unlikely. Experts forecast crude to decline toward low-$70s over the next six months, while Bank of Baroda projects prices to remain elevated at $80-90 per barrel for the rest of the year.