Expert view: A smooth rally unlikely in short term; markets not out of macro woods, says Rishabh Nahar of Qode Advisors

Rishabh Nahar of Qode Advisors is cautious on Indian markets, expecting a gradual earnings-led grind higher with bouts of volatility rather than a smooth rally. Key risks include fresh geopolitical flare-ups in West Asia, a hawkish US Fed surprise, tariff setbacks, and a below-normal monsoon that could hurt rural demand and complicate the RBI's job, with FY27 inflation estimate nudged up to around 5.1%. Positive factors include Brent crude easing into the low-to-mid 70 dollars, slowing FII selling, Bank Nifty resilience, and healthy banking fundamentals, while the IT sector remains pressured with the Nifty IT index down over 30 percent year-to-date on structural concerns around agentic AI.