Expert View: Vikas Khemani shares pitfalls of global investing, says large-cap trade is overcrowded

Carnelian Asset Management's Vikas Khemani argues against the recent global diversification rush, noting it is driven by trailing 12-month returns while Indian corporate earnings have compounded at 14-15% CAGR over 20-25 years. He sees strong opportunity in under-researched mid-cap and select small-cap names, and highlights manufacturing (share of GDP rising from 14% to 20% over the next decade) and BFSI as sectors with firmly positive rate of change despite mixed near-term numbers. He cautions that the large-cap trade is overcrowded and that 'global diversification' is effectively US mega-cap tech concentration at ~230% market cap-to-GDP, the highest Buffett Indicator on record.