Global oil market weathers Iran war shock, but reserve depletion raises future price risks

A four-month conflict involving U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran caused the largest energy disruption on record, with global oil supply losses reaching an estimated 14 million barrels per day at the peak. Brent crude briefly climbed to around $126 per barrel in April but has since fallen below pre-conflict levels, as around one billion barrels were released from strategic reserves globally, with China alone holding 1.4 billion barrels. While markets have stabilized, depleted reserves, ongoing infrastructure repairs across Gulf producers, and fragile U.S.-Iran negotiations leave the global oil market exposed to future price risks if tensions reignite.