Goldman Sachs upgrades India's growth outlook after US-Iran peace deal

Goldman Sachs has upgraded India's growth outlook following the US-Iran peace deal, raising its FY27 GDP growth forecast by 40 basis points to 6.5 percent, citing lower crude oil prices and reduced geopolitical tail risks. The bank noted Q1 CY26 real GDP growth printed at 7.8 percent year-on-year, around 50 basis points above its prior estimate, driven by stronger investment and services activity. Goldman has also cut its CY26 CPI inflation forecast by 20 basis points to 4.4 percent, lowered the current account deficit estimate to 1.1 percent of GDP, and retained a base case of cumulative 50 basis points of RBI rate hikes in October and December 2026 taking the repo rate to 5.75 percent.