India’s top 3 fuel retailers may report Rs 47,700 crore loss in Q1. What’s behind this?

Brokerages Nomura, JM Financial and Motilal Oswal expect HPCL, BPCL and IOCL to report a combined EBITDA loss of around Rs 47,700 crore in Q1FY27, as OMCs struggle to pass on higher crude prices and face LPG under-recoveries of about Rs 560 per cylinder. Blended auto fuel marketing margins have deteriorated to a loss of about Rs 21 per litre from a loss of around Rs 5 per litre in Q4FY26, driven by crude price spike, rupee depreciation and higher refinery transfer prices. Even after the government's Rs 3 per litre petrol and diesel hike, OMCs continue losing about Rs 25 per litre on a blended basis, with Nomura estimating a daily loss run rate of Rs 1,380 crore.