Investors are watching Jio but Mukesh Ambani-led RIL’s Q1 surprise may come from refining

RIL's Q1 earnings are expected to be driven by its oil-to-chemicals (O2C) segment as Singapore gross refining margins surged to $21.3 per barrel from $5.6 a year earlier, with diesel, gasoline and aviation-fuel cracks jumping 263%, 152% and 342% respectively. Brokerages such as JPMorgan, Jefferies and Citi forecast consolidated EBITDA growth of 10-12% year-on-year with O2C EBITDA expected to rise 20-24%, while Nomura is more conservative at around 5% EBITDA growth citing refinery maintenance and fuel-retailing losses. Jio is expected to remain steady with about 8 million subscriber additions taking the base to 532.4 million and ARPU improving to around Rs 217 per month from Rs 214 in the previous quarter.