Market outlook: Monsoon, crude oil prices to earnings - Five key macro triggers for Dalal Street in H2CY26

Market experts are turning more constructive on Indian equities for the second half of CY2026, citing falling crude oil prices, easing inflation risks and improving corporate earnings prospects. However, they remain cautious on expensive valuations, uneven monsoon distribution and elevated US bond yields, with expectations of only modest returns. DIIs invested $8.7 billion in June while FIIs remained net sellers for the fourth straight month at $3 billion, leaving CY26 year-to-date flows at $50.1 billion in DII inflows against $29 billion in FII outflows.