Monsoon risk, younger investor base, and skewed trading activity define NSE outlook: NSE data

NSE flagged monsoon as the key macro risk for 2026, noting IMD has revised its South-West monsoon forecast to 90 per cent of the long-period average with a 60 per cent probability of deficient rainfall and El Nino risk. NSE said historical El Nino years have seen rainfall deviations ranging from -5.4 per cent in 2023 to -22.1 per cent in 2002, impacting kharif sowing, reservoir levels and food inflation. Meanwhile, the registered investor base rose to 13.1 crore as of May 2026 at a 25.3 per cent CAGR during FY21-FY26, with investors below 30 now making up 38.3 per cent of the base. Trading remains highly concentrated, with the top 2.6 per cent of active cash market investors accounting for 92.3 per cent of turnover.