NSE IPO to value exchange at Rs 5 lakh crore? 2 scenarios every investor should watch

NSE has filed its DRHP for an IPO structured entirely as an Offer for Sale, with up to 148.9 million equity shares (about 6% of outstanding equity) being offloaded by SBI, CPPIB, Aranda Investments, MS Strategic and Bank of Baroda. Centrum Institutional Research values NSE at around Rs 5-5.5 lakh crore, implying 35-40x FY28E EPS, citing dominant market share (about 93% in cash equities, nearly 100% in equity futures), a 24% revenue CAGR over FY21-FY26, EBITDA margins above 70% and ROE above 30%. Operating revenue is projected to rise from Rs 166 billion in FY26 to about Rs 218 billion by FY28E, with ROE recovering towards the high-30s.