Oil retreat hands RBI an assist in boosting rupee's near-term outlook

The rupee strengthened about 0.7% to 94.4625 per dollar on Monday, its highest level in seven weeks, buoyed by a plunge in crude oil prices after the US and Iran indicated an initial deal to halt hostilities. Economists now expect the rupee to appreciate toward the 92-94 range by September, with India's balance of payments projected at a marginal surplus this fiscal year versus prior estimates of up to a $70 billion deficit. Foreign investors have withdrawn roughly $30 billion from Indian equities since the start of the conflict, and these outflows are expected to reverse as currency and balance-of-payments pressures ease.