Only 1/5th the size of NSE? Why Jefferies predicts 27% upside for this near-monopoly stock

Jefferies has initiated coverage on MCX with a 27% upside target, calling it a near-monopoly in India's non-agri commodity derivatives market. The brokerage projects revenue to grow at 20% CAGR from FY26 to FY29 (from Rs 230 billion to Rs 400 billion), with EBITDA at 21% CAGR and margins expanding 260 basis points to 73%. EPS is forecast to rise from Rs 52 in FY26 to Rs 94 in FY29, a 22% CAGR with RoE sustained at around 50-51%, while MCX trades at FY27 P/E of 46x and PEG of 2.0x. Additional optionalities including a coal exchange, colocation, FPI participation, and weekly options could add 24-38% earnings upside by FY31.