Private banks may lead PSU peers in Q1 PAT show amid macro pressures

Analysts project private sector banks to lead PSU peers in Q1FY27 with about 10% YoY PAT growth versus 9% for PSU banks, per Motilal Oswal estimates. Private banks' NII is seen rising 10.4% YoY (HDFC Bank around 8.5%, ICICI Bank 10.5%, Axis Bank 10.6%, Kotak 10.1%) while PSU bank NII is expected to grow 11% YoY, though PPoP for private banks could decline 8% YoY. Sector credit growth stood at 17.7% YoY as of June 15, but brokers flag NIM compression, modestly higher slippages from West Asia supply-chain disruptions and tariff impacts, and a tilt toward lower-yielding segments like gold and corporate credit.