RIL Q1 preview: Will strong O2C performance drive overall earnings growth?

Brokerages expect Reliance Industries Q1 consolidated EBITDA to grow 4-10% year-on-year, driven primarily by a strong O2C segment benefiting from higher refining margins, better petrochemical spreads, SEZ refinery earnings and a weaker rupee. Jio is also seen supporting earnings through higher ARPU (around Rs 215.4 expected) and subscriber additions of nearly 532 million, while retail revenue may grow 11-16% year-on-year but face margin pressure from weak consumption. The upstream oil and gas segment is expected to be a drag, with EBITDA declining 11-21% year-on-year due to lower KG-D6 production.