Sensex at 1 lakh in one year? Morgan Stanley sees 25% chance; Here’s what could trigger the next stock market rally

Morgan Stanley outlined three scenarios for the Indian stock market over the coming year, assigning 25 percent probability to its bull case where Sensex could reach 1 lakh, 50 percent to its base case, and 25 percent to its bear case. The note identified key triggers that could drive the next leg of the rally in Indian equities. India equity strategist Ridham Desai framed the outlook as probability-weighted across bull, base, and bear outcomes.