The real worry for Indian metal stocks isn't FPI selling. It's more earnings downgrades.

Foreign portfolio investors pulled $961 million (around 9,201 crore) from India's metals and mining stocks in June, the largest monthly outflow since August 2023, reversing nearly 79% of January's inflows. Analysts warn the bigger concern is further earnings downgrades, with FY27 Ebitda estimates already cut by 6% for Tata Steel, 5% for SAIL and 2% for JSW Steel, and downside risks to volumes and profitability expected to persist over the next three quarters. Ferrous producers remain relatively better supported by domestic pricing and 9-10% expected steel demand growth in FY27, while non-ferrous names face risks from aluminium price corrections on the London Metal Exchange and fresh Indonesian supply.