US Stock Market: Sticky inflation keeps September Fed rate hike on table despite July pause expectations

Sticky US inflation is keeping a Federal Reserve rate hike on the table for the September 15-16 meeting, with futures pricing about an 80% probability of a move. The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index rose 4.1% year-on-year in May, the fastest since April 2023, while core PCE climbed to 3.4% from 3.3% in April. July pause odds rose to roughly 70% after the data, though easing oil prices may give policymakers some breathing room in coming months.