Models
20 MICRONS LTD20MICRONSMinerals & Mining
₹273per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹273implied FY26 P/E 14.2× · EV/EBITDA 8.4×
Against CMP ₹208.47+31.1%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies(16.5)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3175%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹208₹403
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹130₹237
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 261 |
| PV of terminal value | 776 |
| Enterprise value | 1,036 |
| less net debt | (72) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 964 |
| ÷ 3.53 crore shares | ₹273 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 283 | 305 | 331 | 363 | 403 |
| 10.50% | 260 | 278 | 300 | 325 | 357 |
| 11.00% | 240 | 255 | 273 | 294 | 320 |
| 11.50% | 223 | 236 | 251 | 269 | 289 |
| 12.00% | 208 | 219 | 232 | 247 | 264 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹208.47; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 219 · 271 · 332 |
| Draws below the CMP | 6% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.77 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.60 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.00 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 702 | 777 | 913 | 954 | 997 | 1,042 | 1,088 | 1,137 | 1,189 |
| growth % | 14.4 | 10.8 | 17.4 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| EBITDA | 86 | 104 | 115 | 123 | 129 | 134 | 140 | 147 | 153 |
| margin % | 12.2 | 13.3 | 12.6 | 12.9 | 12.9 | 12.9 | 12.9 | 12.9 | 12.9 |
| less depreciation | (14) | (14) | (18) | (21) | (22) | (23) | (24) | (25) | (26) |
| EBIT | 72 | 89 | 97 | 102 | 107 | 111 | 116 | 122 | 127 |
| less tax on EBIT | (27) | (28) | (29) | (31) | (32) | (33) | |||
| NOPAT | 75 | 79 | 82 | 86 | 90 | 94 | |||
| add depreciation | 14 | 14 | 18 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 |
| less capex | (12) | (20) | (77) | (26) | (28) | (29) | (30) | (30) | (31) |
| less working-capital build | — | (12) | (12) | (13) | (13) | (14) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 51 | 35 | (45) | — | 61 | 64 | 68 | 71 | 75 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 58 | 55 | 52 | 49 | 47 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 146, dividends at 6.6% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 102 | 107 | 111 | 116 | 122 | 127 |
| Interest at 11.5% on debt | (17) | (17) | (17) | (17) | (17) | |
| Profit before tax | 90 | 95 | 100 | 105 | 110 | |
| Profit after tax | 67 | 66 | 70 | 73 | 77 | 81 |
| Dividends | (4) | (4) | (5) | (5) | (5) | (5) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 74 | 118 | 165 | 215 | 269 | 326 |
| Working capital | 258 | 270 | 282 | 294 | 308 | 321 |
| Net block and other assets | 425 | 431 | 437 | 442 | 448 | 453 |
| Debt | 146 | 146 | 146 | 146 | 146 | 146 |
| Equity | 487 | 549 | 614 | 683 | 755 | 831 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 77 | 81 | 85 | 89 | 94 | |
| Investing (capex) | (28) | (29) | (30) | (30) | (31) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (4) | (5) | (5) | (5) | (5) | |
| Net change in cash | 44 | 47 | 50 | 54 | 57 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 49 | 52 | 55 | 59 | 62 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 4.5% | 12.9% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹273 | 31.1% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.