₹1,337per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹1,337implied FY26 P/E 19.1× · EV/EBITDA 19.6×
Against CMP ₹1,420.00−5.9%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies32.9%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3187%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹1,005₹1,999
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹1,085₹1,589
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 146 |
| PV of terminal value | 964 |
| Enterprise value | 1,110 |
| less net debt | 35 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,145 |
| ÷ 0.86 crore shares | ₹1,337 |
87% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 1,383 | 1,495 | 1,629 | 1,794 | 1,999 |
| 10.50% | 1,266 | 1,359 | 1,469 | 1,602 | 1,763 |
| 11.00% | 1,167 | 1,245 | 1,337 | 1,445 | 1,574 |
| 11.50% | 1,080 | 1,147 | 1,224 | 1,314 | 1,420 |
| 12.00% | 1,005 | 1,063 | 1,128 | 1,204 | 1,292 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,420.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 1,007 · 1,316 · 1,729 |
| Draws below the CMP | 64% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.65 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.54 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.47 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 62 | 74 | 96 | 142 | 184 | 240 | 312 | 405 | 527 |
| growth % | (23.3) | 19.9 | 30.1 | 47.1 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | 29 | 33 | 50 | 57 | 74 | 96 | 125 | 162 | 211 |
| margin % | 47.1 | 44.5 | 51.9 | 40.0 | 40.0 | 40.0 | 40.0 | 40.0 | 40.0 |
| less depreciation | (1) | (1) | (1) | (5) | (7) | (9) | (11) | (15) | (19) |
| EBIT | 28 | 32 | 49 | 52 | 67 | 87 | 113 | 148 | 192 |
| less tax on EBIT | (11) | (15) | (19) | (25) | (33) | (42) | |||
| NOPAT | 40 | 52 | 68 | 88 | 115 | 149 | |||
| add depreciation | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 15 | 19 |
| less capex | 0 | 0 | (1) | (26) | (33) | (35) | (35) | (31) | (23) |
| less working-capital build | — | (18) | (24) | (31) | (41) | (53) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 23 | 27 | 42 | — | 7 | 18 | 34 | 58 | 93 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 7 | 15 | 26 | 40 | 58 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 3, dividends at 5.8% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 52 | 67 | 87 | 113 | 148 | 192 |
| Interest at 13.9% on debt | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | |
| Profit before tax | 67 | 87 | 113 | 147 | 191 | |
| Profit after tax | 59 | 52 | 68 | 88 | 115 | 149 |
| Dividends | (3) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (7) | (9) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 38 | 42 | 56 | 84 | 134 | 218 |
| Working capital | 62 | 80 | 104 | 135 | 176 | 229 |
| Net block and other assets | 278 | 305 | 331 | 355 | 371 | 375 |
| Debt | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Equity | 332 | 381 | 444 | 527 | 635 | 776 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 40 | 52 | 68 | 89 | 115 | |
| Investing (capex) | (33) | (35) | (35) | (31) | (23) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (7) | (9) | |
| Net change in cash | 4 | 13 | 28 | 51 | 84 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 7 | 17 | 33 | 57 | 93 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 40% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹1,337 | (5.9)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.