Models
5PAISA CAPITAL LIMITED5PAISACapital Markets
₹171per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹171implied FY26 P/E 13.1× · EV/EBITDA 7.6×
Against CMP ₹324.70−47.4%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies10.5%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3170%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹137₹238
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹246₹417
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 232 |
| PV of terminal value | 532 |
| Enterprise value | 764 |
| less net debt | 37 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 801 |
| ÷ 4.69 crore shares | ₹171 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 176 | 187 | 201 | 218 | 238 |
| 10.50% | 164 | 173 | 185 | 198 | 214 |
| 11.00% | 154 | 162 | 171 | 182 | 195 |
| 11.50% | 145 | 152 | 159 | 168 | 179 |
| 12.00% | 137 | 143 | 149 | 157 | 166 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹324.70; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 147 · 171 · 200 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.71 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.68 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 338 | 395 | 360 | 320 | 304 | 288 | 274 | 260 | 247 |
| growth % | 13.8 | 16.8 | (8.9) | (11.1) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) |
| EBITDA | 86 | 110 | 127 | 101 | 96 | 91 | 86 | 82 | 78 |
| margin % | 25.5 | 27.9 | 35.3 | 31.5 | 31.5 | 31.5 | 31.5 | 31.5 | 31.5 |
| less depreciation | (9) | (10) | (12) | (9) | (9) | (8) | (8) | (8) | (7) |
| EBIT | 77 | 101 | 115 | 91 | 87 | 82 | 78 | 74 | 71 |
| less tax on EBIT | (23) | (22) | (21) | (20) | (19) | (18) | |||
| NOPAT | 68 | 65 | 61 | 58 | 55 | 53 | |||
| add depreciation | 9 | 10 | 12 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 |
| less capex | (14) | (19) | (8) | (7) | (7) | (7) | (8) | (8) | (9) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 11 | (111) | 90 | — | 67 | 63 | 59 | 55 | 51 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 63 | 53 | 45 | 38 | 32 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 91 | 87 | 82 | 78 | 74 | 71 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 87 | 82 | 78 | 74 | 71 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 65 | 61 | 58 | 55 | 53 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 37 | 104 | 167 | 225 | 280 | 331 |
| Working capital | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,870 | 1,868 | 1,867 | 1,866 | 1,867 | 1,869 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 649 | 714 | 775 | 834 | 889 | 942 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 73 | 70 | 66 | 63 | 60 | |
| Investing (capex) | (7) | (7) | (8) | (8) | (9) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 67 | 63 | 59 | 55 | 51 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 67 | 63 | 59 | 55 | 51 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -5% | 31.5% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹171 | (47.4)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.