Models
AARTI DRUGS LTD.AARTIDRUGSPharmaceuticals & Biotechnology
₹243per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹243implied FY26 P/E 11.6× · EV/EBITDA 9.0×
Against CMP ₹428.30−43.3%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3182%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹169₹390
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹319₹535
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 500 |
| PV of terminal value | 2,283 |
| Enterprise value | 2,783 |
| less net debt | (568) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 2,215 |
| ÷ 9.13 crore shares | ₹243 |
82% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 253 | 278 | 308 | 345 | 390 |
| 10.50% | 227 | 248 | 272 | 302 | 338 |
| 11.00% | 205 | 222 | 243 | 267 | 296 |
| 11.50% | 186 | 201 | 218 | 238 | 261 |
| 12.00% | 169 | 182 | 196 | 213 | 233 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹428.30; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 170 · 240 · 318 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.83 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.51 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.07 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,716 | 2,529 | 2,387 | 2,565 | 2,758 | 2,965 | 3,187 | 3,426 | 3,683 |
| growth % | 9.1 | (6.9) | (5.6) | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 |
| EBITDA | 306 | 316 | 287 | 309 | 334 | 359 | 386 | 415 | 446 |
| margin % | 11.3 | 12.5 | 12.0 | 12.1 | 12.1 | 12.1 | 12.1 | 12.1 | 12.1 |
| less depreciation | (50) | (51) | (56) | (67) | (72) | (77) | (83) | (89) | (96) |
| EBIT | 255 | 265 | 231 | 242 | 262 | 282 | 303 | 325 | 350 |
| less tax on EBIT | (18) | (20) | (21) | (23) | (25) | (27) | |||
| NOPAT | 224 | 242 | 260 | 280 | 301 | 323 | |||
| add depreciation | 50 | 51 | 56 | 67 | 72 | 77 | 83 | 89 | 96 |
| less capex | (165) | (226) | (177) | (173) | (188) | (174) | (158) | (138) | (115) |
| less working-capital build | — | (63) | (68) | (73) | (78) | (84) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (30) | 133 | 67 | — | 63 | 95 | 132 | 173 | 220 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 60 | 81 | 101 | 120 | 137 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 575, dividends at 9.3% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 242 | 262 | 282 | 303 | 325 | 350 |
| Interest at 5.7% on debt | (33) | (33) | (33) | (33) | (33) | |
| Profit before tax | 229 | 249 | 270 | 293 | 317 | |
| Profit after tax | 195 | 212 | 230 | 249 | 270 | 293 |
| Dividends | (18) | (20) | (21) | (23) | (25) | (27) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 7 | 20 | 64 | 142 | 260 | 422 |
| Working capital | 843 | 906 | 974 | 1,047 | 1,125 | 1,209 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,965 | 2,081 | 2,178 | 2,254 | 2,303 | 2,322 |
| Debt | 575 | 575 | 575 | 575 | 575 | 575 |
| Equity | 1,549 | 1,741 | 1,950 | 2,176 | 2,421 | 2,687 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 220 | 239 | 259 | 281 | 304 | |
| Investing (capex) | (188) | (174) | (158) | (138) | (115) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (20) | (21) | (23) | (25) | (27) | |
| Net change in cash | 13 | 43 | 78 | 118 | 162 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 33 | 65 | 101 | 143 | 190 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 7.5% | 12.1% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹243 | (43.3)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.