Models
AARTI INDUSTRIES LTDAARTIINDChemicals & Petrochemicals
₹232per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹232implied FY26 P/E 15.8× · EV/EBITDA 10.8×
Against CMP ₹492.00−52.9%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies44.9%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3187%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹141₹412
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹338₹552
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,619 |
| PV of terminal value | 11,119 |
| Enterprise value | 12,738 |
| less net debt | (4,338) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 8,400 |
| ÷ 36.27 crore shares | ₹232 |
87% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 244 | 275 | 311 | 356 | 412 |
| 10.50% | 212 | 238 | 268 | 304 | 348 |
| 11.00% | 185 | 207 | 232 | 261 | 296 |
| 11.50% | 162 | 180 | 201 | 225 | 254 |
| 12.00% | 141 | 157 | 175 | 195 | 220 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹492.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 125 · 227 · 347 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.86 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.41 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.22 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 6,619 | 6,372 | 7,271 | 8,286 | 9,446 | 10,769 | 12,276 | 13,995 | 15,954 |
| growth % | (5.4) | (3.7) | 14.1 | 14.0 | 14.0 | 14.0 | 14.0 | 14.0 | 14.0 |
| EBITDA | 1,089 | 977 | 1,003 | 1,174 | 1,341 | 1,529 | 1,743 | 1,987 | 2,265 |
| margin % | 16.5 | 15.3 | 13.8 | 14.2 | 14.2 | 14.2 | 14.2 | 14.2 | 14.2 |
| less depreciation | (310) | (378) | (434) | (474) | (538) | (614) | (700) | (798) | (909) |
| EBIT | 779 | 598 | 569 | 700 | 803 | 915 | 1,043 | 1,190 | 1,356 |
| less tax on EBIT | 104 | 120 | 136 | 155 | 177 | 202 | |||
| NOPAT | 804 | 923 | 1,052 | 1,199 | 1,367 | 1,558 | |||
| add depreciation | 310 | 378 | 434 | 474 | 538 | 614 | 700 | 798 | 909 |
| less capex | (1,326) | (1,328) | (1,386) | (1,124) | (1,285) | (1,283) | (1,255) | (1,194) | (1,091) |
| less working-capital build | — | (181) | (206) | (235) | (268) | (306) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (16) | (124) | (144) | — | (5) | 177 | 409 | 703 | 1,071 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (4) | 151 | 315 | 488 | 669 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 4,921, dividends at 8.7% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 700 | 803 | 915 | 1,043 | 1,190 | 1,356 |
| Interest at 7.8% on debt | (384) | (384) | (384) | (384) | (384) | |
| Profit before tax | 419 | 531 | 660 | 806 | 972 | |
| Profit after tax | 419 | 482 | 611 | 758 | 926 | 1,117 |
| Dividends | (36) | (42) | (53) | (66) | (81) | (97) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 583 | 95 | (222) | (320) | (139) | 393 |
| Working capital | 1,294 | 1,475 | 1,681 | 1,916 | 2,185 | 2,490 |
| Net block and other assets | 11,424 | 12,170 | 12,838 | 13,393 | 13,789 | 13,971 |
| Debt | 4,921 | 4,921 | 4,921 | 4,921 | 4,921 | 4,921 |
| Equity | 5,955 | 6,395 | 6,952 | 7,644 | 8,490 | 9,510 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 839 | 1,018 | 1,222 | 1,455 | 1,721 | |
| Investing (capex) | (1,285) | (1,283) | (1,255) | (1,194) | (1,091) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (42) | (53) | (66) | (81) | (97) | |
| Net change in cash | (488) | (317) | (98) | 181 | 532 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (446) | (264) | (32) | 262 | 630 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 14% | 14.2% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹232 | (52.9)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.