Models
AARTI PHARMALABS LIMITEDAARTIPHARMPharmaceuticals & Biotechnology
₹141per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹141implied FY26 P/E 6.0× · EV/EBITDA 5.3×
Against CMP ₹828.30−82.9%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3190%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹84₹256
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹585₹946
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 189 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,770 |
| Enterprise value | 1,959 |
| less net debt | (677) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,282 |
| ÷ 9.07 crore shares | ₹141 |
90% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 149 | 169 | 192 | 221 | 256 |
| 10.50% | 129 | 145 | 164 | 187 | 215 |
| 11.00% | 112 | 125 | 141 | 160 | 183 |
| 11.50% | 97 | 109 | 122 | 137 | 156 |
| 12.00% | 84 | 94 | 105 | 118 | 134 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹828.30; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 99 · 142 · 193 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.72 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.67 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,945 | 1,853 | 2,115 | 1,819 | 1,728 | 1,642 | 1,560 | 1,482 | 1,408 |
| growth % | — | (4.8) | 14.2 | (14.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) |
| EBITDA | 342 | 386 | 464 | 366 | 347 | 330 | 314 | 298 | 283 |
| margin % | 17.6 | 20.8 | 22.0 | 20.1 | 20.1 | 20.1 | 20.1 | 20.1 | 20.1 |
| less depreciation | (63) | (73) | (87) | (104) | (99) | (94) | (89) | (84) | (80) |
| EBIT | 280 | 313 | 377 | 262 | 249 | 236 | 225 | 213 | 203 |
| less tax on EBIT | (68) | (64) | (61) | (58) | (55) | (53) | |||
| NOPAT | 194 | 184 | 175 | 166 | 158 | 150 | |||
| add depreciation | 63 | 73 | 87 | 104 | 99 | 94 | 89 | 84 | 80 |
| less capex | (120) | (156) | (402) | (409) | (389) | (305) | (229) | (159) | (96) |
| less working-capital build | — | 44 | 42 | 40 | 38 | 36 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 143 | 61 | (70) | — | (61) | 6 | 67 | 121 | 170 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (58) | 5 | 51 | 84 | 107 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 686, dividends at 21% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 262 | 249 | 236 | 225 | 213 | 203 |
| Interest at 8.7% on debt | (60) | (60) | (60) | (60) | (60) | |
| Profit before tax | 189 | 177 | 165 | 154 | 143 | |
| Profit after tax | 173 | 140 | 131 | 122 | 114 | 106 |
| Dividends | (36) | (29) | (28) | (26) | (24) | (22) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 9 | (127) | (192) | (196) | (142) | (38) |
| Working capital | 889 | 845 | 803 | 762 | 724 | 688 |
| Net block and other assets | 2,584 | 2,874 | 3,086 | 3,226 | 3,301 | 3,317 |
| Debt | 686 | 686 | 686 | 686 | 686 | 686 |
| Equity | 2,125 | 2,235 | 2,339 | 2,435 | 2,525 | 2,609 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 283 | 267 | 251 | 237 | 223 | |
| Investing (capex) | (389) | (305) | (229) | (159) | (96) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (29) | (28) | (26) | (24) | (22) | |
| Net change in cash | (135) | (66) | (3) | 53 | 104 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (106) | (38) | 22 | 77 | 126 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -5% | 20.1% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹141 | (82.9)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.