₹12,801per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹12,801implied FY26 P/E 17.5× · EV/EBITDA 14.1×
Against CMP ₹25,540.00−49.9%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies26.4%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3176%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹9,980₹18,427
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹25,150₹31,495
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 6,554 |
| PV of terminal value | 20,206 |
| Enterprise value | 26,761 |
| less net debt | 442 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 27,203 |
| ÷ 2.13 crore shares | ₹12,801 |
76% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 13,215 | 14,163 | 15,300 | 16,690 | 18,427 |
| 10.50% | 12,219 | 13,006 | 13,936 | 15,053 | 16,418 |
| 11.00% | 11,365 | 12,028 | 12,801 | 13,715 | 14,812 |
| 11.50% | 10,626 | 11,190 | 11,841 | 12,601 | 13,498 |
| 12.00% | 9,980 | 10,465 | 11,019 | 11,659 | 12,405 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹25,540.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 10,714 · 12,745 · 15,222 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.67 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.56 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.42 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 5,349 | 5,849 | 6,409 | 6,929 | 7,483 | 8,082 | 8,729 | 9,427 | 10,181 |
| growth % | 8.7 | 9.4 | 9.6 | 8.1 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| EBITDA | 1,206 | 1,453 | 1,695 | 1,892 | 2,043 | 2,206 | 2,383 | 2,574 | 2,779 |
| margin % | 22.5 | 24.8 | 26.4 | 27.3 | 27.3 | 27.3 | 27.3 | 27.3 | 27.3 |
| less depreciation | (70) | (71) | (72) | (76) | (82) | (89) | (96) | (104) | (112) |
| EBIT | 1,136 | 1,382 | 1,623 | 1,816 | 1,961 | 2,117 | 2,287 | 2,470 | 2,667 |
| less tax on EBIT | (461) | (498) | (538) | (581) | (627) | (678) | |||
| NOPAT | 1,355 | 1,463 | 1,580 | 1,706 | 1,843 | 1,990 | |||
| add depreciation | 70 | 71 | 72 | 76 | 82 | 89 | 96 | 104 | 112 |
| less capex | (34) | (48) | (53) | (41) | (45) | (63) | (84) | (107) | (134) |
| less working-capital build | — | (16) | (17) | (19) | (20) | (22) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 859 | 1,164 | 959 | — | 1,484 | 1,588 | 1,699 | 1,818 | 1,946 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 1,409 | 1,358 | 1,309 | 1,262 | 1,216 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 65% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 1,816 | 1,961 | 2,117 | 2,287 | 2,470 | 2,667 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 1,961 | 2,117 | 2,287 | 2,470 | 2,667 | |
| Profit after tax | 1,552 | 1,463 | 1,580 | 1,706 | 1,843 | 1,990 |
| Dividends | (1,009) | (951) | (1,027) | (1,109) | (1,198) | (1,293) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 442 | 976 | 1,537 | 2,128 | 2,748 | 3,401 |
| Working capital | 201 | 217 | 235 | 253 | 274 | 296 |
| Net block and other assets | 5,858 | 5,821 | 5,795 | 5,783 | 5,787 | 5,809 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 4,774 | 5,286 | 5,839 | 6,436 | 7,081 | 7,777 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 1,529 | 1,651 | 1,783 | 1,926 | 2,080 | |
| Investing (capex) | (45) | (63) | (84) | (107) | (134) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (951) | (1,027) | (1,109) | (1,198) | (1,293) | |
| Net change in cash | 533 | 561 | 591 | 621 | 652 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 1,484 | 1,588 | 1,699 | 1,818 | 1,946 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 8% | 27.3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹12,801 | (49.9)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.