Models
ACC LIMITEDACCCement & Cement Products
₹1,903per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹1,903implied FY26 P/E 18.7× · EV/EBITDA 11.8×
Against CMP ₹1,247.00+52.6%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies(0.3)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3180%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹1,460₹2,787
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹1,250₹1,987
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 7,081 |
| PV of terminal value | 28,151 |
| Enterprise value | 35,232 |
| less net debt | 537 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 35,769 |
| ÷ 18.80 crore shares | ₹1,903 |
80% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 1,966 | 2,115 | 2,295 | 2,513 | 2,787 |
| 10.50% | 1,810 | 1,934 | 2,081 | 2,256 | 2,471 |
| 11.00% | 1,676 | 1,781 | 1,903 | 2,046 | 2,219 |
| 11.50% | 1,561 | 1,650 | 1,752 | 1,872 | 2,013 |
| 12.00% | 1,460 | 1,536 | 1,623 | 1,724 | 1,842 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,247.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 1,341 · 1,872 · 2,502 |
| Draws below the CMP | 6% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.86 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.38 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.25 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 22,210 | 19,959 | 21,762 | 25,962 | 31,024 | 37,074 | 44,304 | 52,943 | 63,267 |
| growth % | — | (10.1) | 9.0 | 19.3 | 19.5 | 19.5 | 19.5 | 19.5 | 19.5 |
| EBITDA | 1,763 | 3,291 | 3,161 | 2,978 | 3,568 | 4,264 | 5,095 | 6,088 | 7,276 |
| margin % | 7.9 | 16.5 | 14.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 |
| less depreciation | (841) | (883) | (1,001) | (1,118) | (1,334) | (1,594) | (1,905) | (2,277) | (2,720) |
| EBIT | 922 | 2,408 | 2,160 | 1,860 | 2,234 | 2,669 | 3,190 | 3,812 | 4,555 |
| less tax on EBIT | (17) | (20) | (24) | (29) | (34) | (41) | |||
| NOPAT | 1,843 | 2,214 | 2,645 | 3,161 | 3,778 | 4,514 | |||
| add depreciation | 841 | 883 | 1,001 | 1,118 | 1,334 | 1,594 | 1,905 | 2,277 | 2,720 |
| less capex | (2,105) | (1,395) | (1,968) | (1,433) | (1,706) | (2,008) | (2,361) | (2,777) | (3,265) |
| less working-capital build | — | (618) | (738) | (882) | (1,054) | (1,260) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (3,340) | 1,600 | (257) | — | 1,224 | 1,494 | 1,823 | 2,223 | 2,711 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 1,162 | 1,277 | 1,404 | 1,543 | 1,695 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 6.6% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 1,860 | 2,234 | 2,669 | 3,190 | 3,812 | 4,555 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 2,234 | 2,669 | 3,190 | 3,812 | 4,555 | |
| Profit after tax | 2,137 | 2,214 | 2,645 | 3,161 | 3,778 | 4,514 |
| Dividends | (141) | (146) | (175) | (209) | (249) | (298) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 537 | 1,615 | 2,934 | 4,548 | 6,522 | 8,935 |
| Working capital | 3,179 | 3,797 | 4,535 | 5,417 | 6,471 | 7,731 |
| Net block and other assets | 23,808 | 24,181 | 24,594 | 25,050 | 25,551 | 26,095 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 20,554 | 22,622 | 25,093 | 28,045 | 31,574 | 35,790 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 2,930 | 3,501 | 4,184 | 5,000 | 5,975 | |
| Investing (capex) | (1,706) | (2,008) | (2,361) | (2,777) | (3,265) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (146) | (175) | (209) | (249) | (298) | |
| Net change in cash | 1,078 | 1,319 | 1,614 | 1,974 | 2,413 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 1,224 | 1,494 | 1,823 | 2,223 | 2,711 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 19.5% | 11.5% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹1,903 | 52.6% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.