Models
ACME SOLAR HOLDINGS LTDACMESOLARPower
₹50per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹50implied FY26 P/E 5.2× · EV/EBITDA 11.4×
Against CMP ₹401.80−87.4%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY31152%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹(75)₹304
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹196₹431
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | (10,491) |
| PV of terminal value | 30,808 |
| Enterprise value | 20,317 |
| less net debt | (16,757) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 3,560 |
| ÷ 70.56 crore shares | ₹50 |
152% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 65 | 109 | 161 | 225 | 304 |
| 10.50% | 22 | 58 | 100 | 152 | 214 |
| 11.00% | (15) | 15 | 50 | 92 | 143 |
| 11.50% | (47) | (21) | 9 | 43 | 85 |
| 12.00% | (75) | (53) | (27) | 2 | 36 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹401.80; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (78) · 46 · 218 |
| Draws below the CMP | 99% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.66 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.56 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.43 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,405 | 2,023 | 2,630 | 3,420 | 4,445 | 5,779 | 7,513 |
| growth % | — | 44.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | 1,214 | 1,784 | 2,320 | 3,016 | 3,921 | 5,097 | 6,626 |
| margin % | 86.4 | 88.2 | 88.2 | 88.2 | 88.2 | 88.2 | 88.2 |
| less depreciation | (287) | (468) | (608) | (790) | (1,027) | (1,335) | (1,735) |
| EBIT | 927 | 1,316 | 1,712 | 2,226 | 2,894 | 3,762 | 4,891 |
| less tax on EBIT | (347) | (452) | (588) | (764) | (993) | (1,291) | |
| NOPAT | 969 | 1,260 | 1,638 | 2,130 | 2,769 | 3,600 | |
| add depreciation | 287 | 468 | 608 | 790 | 1,027 | 1,335 | 1,735 |
| less capex | (3,266) | (5,321) | (6,918) | (6,982) | (6,462) | (5,001) | (2,083) |
| less working-capital build | — | (100) | (130) | (169) | (220) | (286) | |
| Free cash flow to firm | (1,723) | — | (5,150) | (4,684) | (3,474) | (1,117) | 2,966 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||
| Present value | (4,888) | (4,005) | (2,676) | (775) | 1,855 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 18,988, dividends at 4.9% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 1,316 | 1,712 | 2,226 | 2,894 | 3,762 | 4,891 |
| Interest at 7.6% on debt | (1,443) | (1,443) | (1,443) | (1,443) | (1,443) | |
| Profit before tax | 269 | 783 | 1,451 | 2,319 | 3,448 | |
| Profit after tax | 499 | 198 | 576 | 1,068 | 1,707 | 2,537 |
| Dividends | (24) | (10) | (28) | (52) | (84) | (124) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 2,231 | (3,991) | (9,765) | (14,354) | (16,617) | (14,837) |
| Working capital | 335 | 435 | 565 | 734 | 955 | 1,241 |
| Net block and other assets | 25,975 | 32,285 | 38,477 | 43,912 | 47,578 | 47,925 |
| Debt | 18,988 | 18,988 | 18,988 | 18,988 | 18,988 | 18,988 |
| Equity | 5,060 | 5,249 | 5,797 | 6,812 | 8,435 | 10,849 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 706 | 1,236 | 1,925 | 2,822 | 3,987 | |
| Investing (capex) | (6,918) | (6,982) | (6,462) | (5,001) | (2,083) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (10) | (28) | (52) | (84) | (124) | |
| Net change in cash | (6,222) | (5,774) | (4,589) | (2,263) | 1,780 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (6,212) | (5,746) | (4,536) | (2,179) | 1,904 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 88.2% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹50 | (87.4)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.