Models
ACTION CONST EQUIP LTDACEAgricultural Commercial & Construction Vehicles
₹381per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹381implied FY26 P/E 10.4× · EV/EBITDA 8.9×
Against CMP ₹1,131.00−66.3%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies25.2%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3174%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹299₹545
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹745₹1,196
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,178 |
| PV of terminal value | 3,300 |
| Enterprise value | 4,479 |
| less net debt | 64 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 4,543 |
| ÷ 11.91 crore shares | ₹381 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 394 | 421 | 454 | 495 | 545 |
| 10.50% | 364 | 387 | 415 | 447 | 487 |
| 11.00% | 340 | 359 | 381 | 408 | 440 |
| 11.50% | 318 | 334 | 353 | 376 | 402 |
| 12.00% | 299 | 313 | 329 | 348 | 370 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,131.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 325 · 382 · 450 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.73 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.66 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,160 | 2,914 | 3,327 | 3,280 | 3,231 | 3,183 | 3,135 | 3,088 | 3,042 |
| growth % | 32.5 | 34.9 | 14.2 | (1.4) | (1.5) | (1.5) | (1.5) | (1.5) | (1.5) |
| EBITDA | 221 | 403 | 506 | 504 | 498 | 490 | 483 | 476 | 468 |
| margin % | 10.2 | 13.8 | 15.2 | 15.4 | 15.4 | 15.4 | 15.4 | 15.4 | 15.4 |
| less depreciation | (18) | (23) | (28) | (35) | (36) | (35) | (34) | (34) | (33) |
| EBIT | 203 | 380 | 477 | 469 | 462 | 455 | 448 | 442 | 435 |
| less tax on EBIT | (119) | (117) | (116) | (114) | (112) | (110) | |||
| NOPAT | 350 | 345 | 340 | 334 | 329 | 324 | |||
| add depreciation | 18 | 23 | 28 | 35 | 36 | 35 | 34 | 34 | 33 |
| less capex | (74) | (175) | (221) | (93) | (90) | (77) | (65) | (52) | (40) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 200 | 258 | 191 | — | 290 | 297 | 304 | 311 | 318 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 275 | 254 | 234 | 216 | 199 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 5.7% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 469 | 462 | 455 | 448 | 442 | 435 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | |
| Profit before tax | 462 | 455 | 448 | 442 | 435 | |
| Profit after tax | 415 | 345 | 340 | 334 | 329 | 324 |
| Dividends | (24) | (20) | (19) | (19) | (19) | (18) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 64 | 334 | 612 | 898 | 1,190 | 1,489 |
| Working capital | (27) | (27) | (27) | (27) | (27) | (27) |
| Net block and other assets | 3,214 | 3,269 | 3,312 | 3,342 | 3,360 | 3,367 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 2,011 | 2,336 | 2,656 | 2,972 | 3,282 | 3,588 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 380 | 375 | 369 | 363 | 358 | |
| Investing (capex) | (90) | (77) | (65) | (52) | (40) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (20) | (19) | (19) | (19) | (18) | |
| Net change in cash | 270 | 278 | 285 | 292 | 299 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 290 | 297 | 304 | 311 | 318 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -1.5% | 15.4% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹381 | (66.3)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.