₹1,163per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹1,163implied FY26 P/E 24.6× · EV/EBITDA 19.4×
Against CMP ₹3,383.00−65.6%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3191%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹859₹1,771
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹1,302₹3,740
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 863 |
| PV of terminal value | 8,466 |
| Enterprise value | 9,329 |
| less net debt | 189 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 9,518 |
| ÷ 8.19 crore shares | ₹1,163 |
91% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 1,204 | 1,307 | 1,431 | 1,582 | 1,771 |
| 10.50% | 1,097 | 1,183 | 1,284 | 1,406 | 1,554 |
| 11.00% | 1,006 | 1,078 | 1,163 | 1,262 | 1,381 |
| 11.50% | 928 | 989 | 1,060 | 1,142 | 1,240 |
| 12.00% | 859 | 912 | 972 | 1,042 | 1,123 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹3,383.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 865 · 1,146 · 1,528 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.60 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.59 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.47 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 617 | 717 | 1,007 | 1,339 | 1,741 | 2,264 | 2,943 | 3,825 | 4,973 |
| growth % | 18.6 | 16.3 | 40.3 | 33.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | 123 | 96 | 232 | 480 | 625 | 813 | 1,056 | 1,373 | 1,785 |
| margin % | 19.9 | 13.4 | 23.0 | 35.9 | 35.9 | 35.9 | 35.9 | 35.9 | 35.9 |
| less depreciation | (12) | (16) | (27) | (36) | (47) | (61) | (79) | (103) | (134) |
| EBIT | 110 | 80 | 205 | 444 | 578 | 751 | 977 | 1,270 | 1,651 |
| less tax on EBIT | (116) | (151) | (197) | (256) | (333) | (433) | |||
| NOPAT | 328 | 427 | 555 | 721 | 937 | 1,218 | |||
| add depreciation | 12 | 16 | 27 | 36 | 47 | 61 | 79 | 103 | 134 |
| less capex | (96) | (280) | (195) | (328) | (427) | (434) | (408) | (327) | (161) |
| less working-capital build | — | (132) | (171) | (223) | (290) | (376) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (31) | (155) | (76) | — | (85) | 10 | 170 | 424 | 815 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (80) | 9 | 131 | 294 | 510 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 26, dividends at 3.4% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 444 | 578 | 751 | 977 | 1,270 | 1,651 |
| Interest at 18.8% on debt | (5) | (5) | (5) | (5) | (5) | |
| Profit before tax | 573 | 747 | 972 | 1,265 | 1,646 | |
| Profit after tax | 356 | 423 | 551 | 717 | 934 | 1,215 |
| Dividends | (12) | (14) | (19) | (24) | (32) | (41) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 216 | 113 | 100 | 242 | 630 | 1,401 |
| Working capital | 440 | 572 | 743 | 966 | 1,255 | 1,632 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,328 | 1,708 | 2,081 | 2,410 | 2,634 | 2,661 |
| Debt | 26 | 26 | 26 | 26 | 26 | 26 |
| Equity | 1,711 | 2,119 | 2,652 | 3,344 | 4,246 | 5,420 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | 0 | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 338 | 441 | 574 | 747 | 973 | |
| Investing (capex) | (427) | (434) | (408) | (327) | (161) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (14) | (19) | (24) | (32) | (41) | |
| Net change in cash | (103) | (12) | 141 | 388 | 770 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (88) | 6 | 166 | 420 | 812 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 35.9% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹1,163 | (65.6)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.