Models
ADANI ENERGY SOLUTION LTDADANIENSOLPower
₹542per share · Base Model Note
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹542implied FY26 P/E 19.8× · EV/EBITDA 12.4×
Against CMP ₹1,373.00−60.5%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies31.7%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY31103%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹262₹1,104
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹792₹1,789
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | (2,880) |
| PV of terminal value | 1,15,156 |
| Enterprise value | 1,12,277 |
| less net debt | (47,164) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 65,113 |
| ÷ 120.13 crore shares | ₹542 |
103% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 579 | 675 | 789 | 929 | 1,104 |
| 10.50% | 481 | 560 | 654 | 767 | 904 |
| 11.00% | 397 | 464 | 542 | 634 | 745 |
| 11.50% | 325 | 382 | 448 | 524 | 615 |
| 12.00% | 262 | 311 | 367 | 431 | 507 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,373.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 291 · 534 · 843 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.60 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.55 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.52 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 13,293 | 16,607 | 23,767 | 27,588 | 32,002 | 37,122 | 43,062 | 49,952 | 57,944 |
| growth % | 18.1 | 24.9 | 43.1 | 16.1 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 16.0 |
| EBITDA | 5,553 | 5,711 | 6,901 | 9,084 | 10,529 | 12,213 | 14,167 | 16,434 | 19,064 |
| margin % | 41.8 | 34.4 | 29.0 | 32.9 | 32.9 | 32.9 | 32.9 | 32.9 | 32.9 |
| less depreciation | (1,608) | (1,776) | (1,906) | (1,978) | (2,304) | (2,673) | (3,100) | (3,597) | (4,172) |
| EBIT | 3,945 | 3,935 | 4,995 | 7,106 | 8,225 | 9,540 | 11,067 | 12,838 | 14,892 |
| less tax on EBIT | (1,222) | (1,415) | (1,641) | (1,904) | (2,208) | (2,561) | |||
| NOPAT | 5,884 | 6,810 | 7,900 | 9,163 | 10,630 | 12,330 | |||
| add depreciation | 1,608 | 1,776 | 1,906 | 1,978 | 2,304 | 2,673 | 3,100 | 3,597 | 4,172 |
| less capex | (4,702) | (5,430) | (9,378) | (14,432) | (16,737) | (15,363) | (13,121) | (9,768) | (5,006) |
| less working-capital build | — | (225) | (261) | (303) | (351) | (408) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (925) | 608 | (683) | — | (7,848) | (5,052) | (1,160) | 4,107 | 11,088 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (7,449) | (4,320) | (894) | 2,850 | 6,933 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 48,898, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 7,106 | 8,225 | 9,540 | 11,067 | 12,838 | 14,892 |
| Interest at 8.2% on debt | (4,010) | (4,010) | (4,010) | (4,010) | (4,010) | |
| Profit before tax | 4,215 | 5,531 | 7,057 | 8,828 | 10,882 | |
| Profit after tax | 2,283 | 3,490 | 4,580 | 5,843 | 7,310 | 9,010 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 1,735 | (9,434) | (17,806) | (22,286) | (21,499) | (13,731) |
| Working capital | 1,406 | 1,631 | 1,892 | 2,195 | 2,546 | 2,954 |
| Net block and other assets | 89,694 | 1,04,127 | 1,16,818 | 1,26,838 | 1,33,010 | 1,33,844 |
| Debt | 48,898 | 48,898 | 48,898 | 48,898 | 48,898 | 48,898 |
| Equity | 26,526 | 30,016 | 34,595 | 40,438 | 47,748 | 56,758 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 5,569 | 6,991 | 8,641 | 10,555 | 12,775 | |
| Investing (capex) | (16,737) | (15,363) | (13,121) | (9,768) | (5,006) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (11,168) | (8,372) | (4,480) | 787 | 7,768 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (11,168) | (8,372) | (4,480) | 787 | 7,768 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 16% | 32.9% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹542 | (60.5)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.