Models
ADANI ENTERPRISES LIMITEDADANIENTMetals & Minerals Trading
₹40per share · Base Model Note
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹40implied FY26 P/E 0.6× · EV/EBITDA 4.9×
Against CMP ₹3,060.00−98.7%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY31112%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹(243)₹609
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹1,753₹3,245
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | (13,693) |
| PV of terminal value | 1,26,353 |
| Enterprise value | 1,12,660 |
| less net debt | (1,07,435) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 5,225 |
| ÷ 130.16 crore shares | ₹40 |
112% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 77 | 174 | 290 | 432 | 609 |
| 10.50% | (22) | 58 | 153 | 267 | 407 |
| 11.00% | (106) | (39) | 40 | 133 | 245 |
| 11.50% | (179) | (122) | (55) | 22 | 114 |
| 12.00% | (243) | (193) | (136) | (71) | 5 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹3,060.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (199) · 30 · 307 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.79 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.57 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.07 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,36,978 | 96,421 | 97,895 | 1,00,469 | 1,02,980 | 1,05,555 | 1,08,194 | 1,10,899 | 1,13,671 |
| growth % | 97.3 | (29.6) | 1.5 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| EBITDA | 8,459 | 10,661 | 18,198 | 23,204 | 23,788 | 24,383 | 24,993 | 25,618 | 26,258 |
| margin % | 6.2 | 11.1 | 18.6 | 23.1 | 23.1 | 23.1 | 23.1 | 23.1 | 23.1 |
| less depreciation | (2,436) | (3,042) | (4,211) | (6,135) | (6,282) | (6,439) | (6,600) | (6,765) | (6,934) |
| EBIT | 6,023 | 7,619 | 13,986 | 17,069 | 17,507 | 17,944 | 18,393 | 18,853 | 19,324 |
| less tax on EBIT | (4,831) | (4,954) | (5,078) | (5,205) | (5,335) | (5,469) | |||
| NOPAT | 12,239 | 12,552 | 12,866 | 13,188 | 13,517 | 13,855 | |||
| add depreciation | 2,436 | 3,042 | 4,211 | 6,135 | 6,282 | 6,439 | 6,600 | 6,765 | 6,934 |
| less capex | (14,725) | (22,366) | (29,171) | (33,369) | (34,189) | (28,215) | (21,920) | (15,293) | (8,321) |
| less working-capital build | — | (274) | (281) | (288) | (295) | (302) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 2,902 | (12,055) | (24,641) | — | (15,629) | (9,191) | (2,420) | 4,694 | 12,166 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (14,835) | (7,859) | (1,864) | 3,258 | 7,607 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 1,13,702, dividends at 1.6% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 17,069 | 17,507 | 17,944 | 18,393 | 18,853 | 19,324 |
| Interest at 6.3% on debt | (7,163) | (7,163) | (7,163) | (7,163) | (7,163) | |
| Profit before tax | 10,343 | 10,781 | 11,230 | 11,690 | 12,161 | |
| Profit after tax | 9,339 | 7,416 | 7,730 | 8,052 | 8,381 | 8,719 |
| Dividends | (150) | (119) | (124) | (129) | (134) | (140) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 6,267 | (14,617) | (29,067) | (36,752) | (37,328) | (30,437) |
| Working capital | 10,955 | 11,229 | 11,510 | 11,797 | 12,092 | 12,394 |
| Net block and other assets | 2,44,378 | 2,72,286 | 2,94,062 | 3,09,382 | 3,17,910 | 3,19,297 |
| Debt | 1,13,702 | 1,13,702 | 1,13,702 | 1,13,702 | 1,13,702 | 1,13,702 |
| Equity | 89,178 | 96,476 | 1,04,082 | 1,12,005 | 1,20,252 | 1,28,832 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 13,424 | 13,888 | 14,364 | 14,851 | 15,351 | |
| Investing (capex) | (34,189) | (28,215) | (21,920) | (15,293) | (8,321) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (119) | (124) | (129) | (134) | (140) | |
| Net change in cash | (20,884) | (14,450) | (7,685) | (576) | 6,891 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (20,765) | (14,327) | (7,556) | (442) | 7,030 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 2.5% | 23.1% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹40 | (98.7)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.