Models
ADANI GREEN ENERGY LTDADANIGREENPower
₹37per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹37implied FY26 P/E 2.5× · EV/EBITDA 10.0×
Against CMP ₹1,281.30−97.1%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies40.9%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY31125%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹(195)₹506
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹765₹1,632
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | (26,170) |
| PV of terminal value | 1,32,047 |
| Enterprise value | 1,05,877 |
| less net debt | (99,705) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 6,172 |
| ÷ 164.70 crore shares | ₹37 |
125% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 67 | 146 | 242 | 359 | 506 |
| 10.50% | (15) | 52 | 130 | 224 | 339 |
| 11.00% | (84) | (28) | 37 | 115 | 207 |
| 11.50% | (143) | (95) | (41) | 23 | 99 |
| 12.00% | (195) | (154) | (107) | (53) | 10 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,281.30; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (184) · 28 · 297 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.69 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.49 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.47 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 7,792 | 9,220 | 11,212 | 12,928 | 14,932 | 17,246 | 19,919 | 23,007 | 26,573 |
| growth % | 51.8 | 18.3 | 21.6 | 15.3 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 15.5 |
| EBITDA | 4,737 | 7,051 | 8,562 | 10,549 | 12,184 | 14,073 | 16,254 | 18,774 | 21,684 |
| margin % | 60.8 | 76.5 | 76.4 | 81.6 | 81.6 | 81.6 | 81.6 | 81.6 | 81.6 |
| less depreciation | (1,300) | (1,903) | (2,498) | (3,372) | (3,897) | (4,501) | (5,199) | (6,005) | (6,936) |
| EBIT | 3,437 | 5,148 | 6,064 | 7,177 | 8,287 | 9,572 | 11,055 | 12,769 | 14,748 |
| less tax on EBIT | (65) | (75) | (86) | (99) | (115) | (133) | |||
| NOPAT | 7,112 | 8,213 | 9,486 | 10,956 | 12,654 | 14,615 | |||
| add depreciation | 1,300 | 1,903 | 2,498 | 3,372 | 3,897 | 4,501 | 5,199 | 6,005 | 6,936 |
| less capex | (3,376) | (15,773) | (24,776) | (26,097) | (30,147) | (27,466) | (23,228) | (17,017) | (8,323) |
| less working-capital build | — | (289) | (333) | (385) | (445) | (514) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 3,889 | (8,060) | (16,412) | — | (18,326) | (13,812) | (7,458) | 1,197 | 12,715 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (17,394) | (11,811) | (5,746) | 831 | 7,950 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 1,01,440, dividends at 20.1% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 7,177 | 8,287 | 9,572 | 11,055 | 12,769 | 14,748 |
| Interest at 7.2% on debt | (7,304) | (7,304) | (7,304) | (7,304) | (7,304) | |
| Profit before tax | 983 | 2,268 | 3,752 | 5,465 | 7,444 | |
| Profit after tax | 1,652 | 975 | 2,248 | 3,718 | 5,416 | 7,377 |
| Dividends | (332) | (196) | (452) | (747) | (1,089) | (1,483) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 1,735 | (24,025) | (45,527) | (60,970) | (68,100) | (64,106) |
| Working capital | 1,860 | 2,148 | 2,481 | 2,866 | 3,311 | 3,824 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,40,502 | 1,66,753 | 1,89,717 | 2,07,746 | 2,18,758 | 2,20,145 |
| Debt | 1,01,440 | 1,01,440 | 1,01,440 | 1,01,440 | 1,01,440 | 1,01,440 |
| Equity | 29,879 | 30,658 | 32,454 | 35,424 | 39,752 | 45,646 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 4,583 | 6,416 | 8,532 | 10,976 | 13,799 | |
| Investing (capex) | (30,147) | (27,466) | (23,228) | (17,017) | (8,323) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (196) | (452) | (747) | (1,089) | (1,483) | |
| Net change in cash | (25,760) | (21,502) | (15,443) | (7,130) | 3,994 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (25,564) | (21,050) | (14,696) | (6,041) | 5,477 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 15.5% | 81.6% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹37 | (97.1)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.