Models
ADANI PORT & SEZ LTDADANIPORTSTransport Infrastructure
₹1,796per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹1,796implied FY26 P/E 30.7× · EV/EBITDA 20.5×
Against CMP ₹1,764.60+1.8%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies24.1%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3186%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹1,289₹2,811
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹1,292₹1,891
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 67,019 |
| PV of terminal value | 3,96,680 |
| Enterprise value | 4,63,699 |
| less net debt | (49,941) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 4,13,758 |
| ÷ 230.40 crore shares | ₹1,796 |
86% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 1,867 | 2,039 | 2,244 | 2,496 | 2,811 |
| 10.50% | 1,688 | 1,831 | 2,000 | 2,202 | 2,449 |
| 11.00% | 1,536 | 1,656 | 1,796 | 1,961 | 2,160 |
| 11.50% | 1,404 | 1,506 | 1,624 | 1,761 | 1,924 |
| 12.00% | 1,289 | 1,377 | 1,477 | 1,593 | 1,728 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,764.60; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 1,259 · 1,779 · 2,463 |
| Draws below the CMP | 49% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.71 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.50 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.43 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 20,852 | 26,711 | 31,079 | 38,736 | 48,226 | 60,041 | 74,752 | 93,066 | 1,15,867 |
| growth % | 30.9 | 28.1 | 16.4 | 24.6 | 24.5 | 24.5 | 24.5 | 24.5 | 24.5 |
| EBITDA | 9,674 | 15,490 | 18,775 | 22,644 | 28,212 | 35,124 | 43,730 | 54,443 | 67,782 |
| margin % | 46.4 | 58.0 | 60.4 | 58.5 | 58.5 | 58.5 | 58.5 | 58.5 | 58.5 |
| less depreciation | (3,423) | (3,888) | (4,379) | (5,517) | (6,848) | (8,526) | (10,615) | (13,215) | (16,453) |
| EBIT | 6,251 | 11,602 | 14,396 | 17,126 | 21,364 | 26,598 | 33,115 | 41,228 | 51,329 |
| less tax on EBIT | (2,432) | (3,034) | (3,777) | (4,702) | (5,854) | (7,289) | |||
| NOPAT | 14,694 | 18,330 | 22,821 | 28,413 | 35,374 | 44,040 | |||
| add depreciation | 3,423 | 3,888 | 4,379 | 5,517 | 6,848 | 8,526 | 10,615 | 13,215 | 16,453 |
| less capex | (9,125) | (7,416) | (8,049) | (15,320) | (19,098) | (20,390) | (21,170) | (21,107) | (19,744) |
| less working-capital build | — | (1,063) | (1,323) | (1,648) | (2,051) | (2,554) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 2,808 | 7,601 | 9,177 | — | 5,018 | 9,634 | 16,210 | 25,431 | 38,196 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 4,763 | 8,238 | 12,488 | 17,649 | 23,882 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 55,103, dividends at 100% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 17,126 | 21,364 | 26,598 | 33,115 | 41,228 | 51,329 |
| Interest at 9.2% on debt | (5,069) | (5,069) | (5,069) | (5,069) | (5,069) | |
| Profit before tax | 16,295 | 21,529 | 28,045 | 36,159 | 46,260 | |
| Profit after tax | 915 | 13,981 | 18,472 | 24,063 | 31,024 | 39,691 |
| Dividends | (1,535) | (13,981) | (18,472) | (24,063) | (31,024) | (39,691) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 5,162 | (8,151) | (21,338) | (33,541) | (43,484) | (49,328) |
| Working capital | 4,330 | 5,393 | 6,716 | 8,364 | 10,415 | 12,969 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,75,823 | 1,88,073 | 1,99,937 | 2,10,492 | 2,18,384 | 2,21,674 |
| Debt | 55,103 | 55,103 | 55,103 | 55,103 | 55,103 | 55,103 |
| Equity | 98,981 | 98,981 | 98,981 | 98,981 | 98,981 | 98,981 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 19,766 | 25,674 | 33,030 | 42,188 | 53,590 | |
| Investing (capex) | (19,098) | (20,390) | (21,170) | (21,107) | (19,744) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (13,981) | (18,472) | (24,063) | (31,024) | (39,691) | |
| Net change in cash | (13,312) | (13,188) | (12,202) | (9,943) | (5,844) | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 668 | 5,284 | 11,861 | 21,081 | 33,846 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 24.5% | 58.5% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹1,796 | 1.8% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.