Models
ADANI POWER LTDADANIPOWERPower
₹32per share · Base Model Note
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹32implied FY26 P/E 4.3× · EV/EBITDA 5.8×
Against CMP ₹209.97−84.7%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies38.6%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3193%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹16₹65
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹120₹254
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 7,536 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,06,917 |
| Enterprise value | 1,14,453 |
| less net debt | (52,628) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 61,825 |
| ÷ 1,928.47 crore shares | ₹32 |
93% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 34 | 40 | 46 | 55 | 65 |
| 10.50% | 29 | 33 | 39 | 45 | 53 |
| 11.00% | 24 | 28 | 32 | 37 | 44 |
| 11.50% | 19 | 23 | 27 | 31 | 36 |
| 12.00% | 16 | 19 | 22 | 26 | 30 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹209.97; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 19 · 32 · 47 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.75 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.64 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 38,773 | 50,351 | 56,203 | 54,241 | 52,342 | 50,510 | 48,742 | 47,036 | 45,390 |
| growth % | 39.9 | 29.9 | 11.6 | (3.5) | (3.5) | (3.5) | (3.5) | (3.5) | (3.5) |
| EBITDA | 10,045 | 18,181 | 21,305 | 19,806 | 19,105 | 18,436 | 17,791 | 17,168 | 16,567 |
| margin % | 25.9 | 36.1 | 37.9 | 36.5 | 36.5 | 36.5 | 36.5 | 36.5 | 36.5 |
| less depreciation | (3,304) | (3,931) | (4,309) | (4,565) | (4,397) | (4,243) | (4,094) | (3,951) | (3,813) |
| EBIT | 6,741 | 14,249 | 16,997 | 15,242 | 14,708 | 14,193 | 13,697 | 13,217 | 12,755 |
| less tax on EBIT | (2,484) | (2,397) | (2,314) | (2,233) | (2,154) | (2,079) | |||
| NOPAT | 12,757 | 12,311 | 11,880 | 11,464 | 11,063 | 10,676 | |||
| add depreciation | 3,304 | 3,931 | 4,309 | 4,565 | 4,397 | 4,243 | 4,094 | 3,951 | 3,813 |
| less capex | (3,244) | (2,602) | (11,559) | (23,299) | (22,507) | (17,562) | (12,936) | (8,612) | (4,575) |
| less working-capital build | — | 440 | 425 | 410 | 396 | 382 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 5,187 | 11,568 | 9,942 | — | (5,359) | (1,015) | 3,032 | 6,797 | 10,295 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (5,087) | (868) | 2,336 | 4,717 | 6,437 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 53,556, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 15,242 | 14,708 | 14,193 | 13,697 | 13,217 | 12,755 |
| Interest at 7.3% on debt | (3,910) | (3,910) | (3,910) | (3,910) | (3,910) | |
| Profit before tax | 10,799 | 10,284 | 9,787 | 9,308 | 8,845 | |
| Profit after tax | 12,834 | 9,038 | 8,608 | 8,192 | 7,790 | 7,403 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 928 | (7,704) | (11,991) | (12,231) | (8,706) | (1,683) |
| Working capital | 12,572 | 12,131 | 11,706 | 11,296 | 10,901 | 10,519 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,28,780 | 1,46,890 | 1,60,210 | 1,69,052 | 1,73,713 | 1,74,476 |
| Debt | 53,556 | 53,556 | 53,556 | 53,556 | 53,556 | 53,556 |
| Equity | 66,402 | 75,440 | 84,048 | 92,240 | 1,00,030 | 1,07,433 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 13,876 | 13,275 | 12,696 | 12,137 | 11,598 | |
| Investing (capex) | (22,507) | (17,562) | (12,936) | (8,612) | (4,575) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (8,632) | (4,287) | (240) | 3,525 | 7,023 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (8,632) | (4,287) | (240) | 3,525 | 7,023 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -3.5% | 36.5% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹32 | (84.7)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.