Models
ADANI TOTAL GAS LIMITEDATGLGas
₹138per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹138implied FY26 P/E 24.1× · EV/EBITDA 14.3×
Against CMP ₹596.70−76.8%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3189%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹98₹220
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹463₹860
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,942 |
| PV of terminal value | 15,198 |
| Enterprise value | 17,140 |
| less net debt | (1,915) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 15,225 |
| ÷ 109.94 crore shares | ₹138 |
89% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 144 | 158 | 174 | 195 | 220 |
| 10.50% | 130 | 141 | 155 | 171 | 191 |
| 11.00% | 118 | 127 | 138 | 152 | 168 |
| 11.50% | 107 | 115 | 125 | 136 | 149 |
| 12.00% | 98 | 105 | 113 | 122 | 133 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹596.70; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 100 · 137 · 185 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.63 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.54 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.49 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4,683 | 4,816 | 5,412 | 6,409 | 7,594 | 8,999 | 10,664 | 12,637 | 14,974 |
| growth % | 46.1 | 2.8 | 12.4 | 18.4 | 18.5 | 18.5 | 18.5 | 18.5 | 18.5 |
| EBITDA | 870 | 1,104 | 1,133 | 1,195 | 1,413 | 1,674 | 1,983 | 2,350 | 2,785 |
| margin % | 18.6 | 22.9 | 20.9 | 18.6 | 18.6 | 18.6 | 18.6 | 18.6 | 18.6 |
| less depreciation | (113) | (158) | (204) | (243) | (289) | (342) | (405) | (480) | (569) |
| EBIT | 757 | 946 | 930 | 951 | 1,124 | 1,332 | 1,578 | 1,870 | 2,216 |
| less tax on EBIT | (250) | (296) | (350) | (415) | (492) | (583) | |||
| NOPAT | 701 | 828 | 982 | 1,163 | 1,378 | 1,633 | |||
| add depreciation | 113 | 158 | 204 | 243 | 289 | 342 | 405 | 480 | 569 |
| less capex | (1,175) | (799) | (941) | (988) | (1,169) | (1,142) | (1,064) | (919) | (683) |
| less working-capital build | — | (28) | (34) | (40) | (47) | (56) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (323) | 156 | 23 | — | (81) | 148 | 464 | 893 | 1,463 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (77) | 126 | 358 | 619 | 915 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 2,168, dividends at 4.2% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 951 | 1,124 | 1,332 | 1,578 | 1,870 | 2,216 |
| Interest at 6.5% on debt | (141) | (141) | (141) | (141) | (141) | |
| Profit before tax | 983 | 1,191 | 1,437 | 1,729 | 2,075 | |
| Profit after tax | 656 | 724 | 878 | 1,059 | 1,274 | 1,529 |
| Dividends | (28) | (30) | (37) | (44) | (54) | (64) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 253 | 38 | 45 | 361 | 1,096 | 2,391 |
| Working capital | 156 | 185 | 218 | 258 | 306 | 362 |
| Net block and other assets | 9,139 | 10,020 | 10,820 | 11,479 | 11,918 | 12,032 |
| Debt | 2,168 | 2,168 | 2,168 | 2,168 | 2,168 | 2,168 |
| Equity | 4,865 | 5,559 | 6,400 | 7,415 | 8,635 | 10,101 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 985 | 1,186 | 1,425 | 1,707 | 2,042 | |
| Investing (capex) | (1,169) | (1,142) | (1,064) | (919) | (683) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (30) | (37) | (44) | (54) | (64) | |
| Net change in cash | (215) | 7 | 316 | 735 | 1,295 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (185) | 44 | 360 | 789 | 1,360 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 18.5% | 18.6% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹138 | (76.8)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.