Models
ADC INDIA COMMUNICATIONS LIMITBSE 523411Telecom - Equipment & Accessories
₹730per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹730implied FY26 P/E 17.7× · EV/EBITDA 13.3×
Against CMP ₹2,299.95−68.3%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3175%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹596₹996
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹1,150₹2,678
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 67 |
| PV of terminal value | 207 |
| Enterprise value | 275 |
| less net debt | 61 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 336 |
| ÷ 0.46 crore shares | ₹730 |
75% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 749 | 794 | 848 | 914 | 996 |
| 10.50% | 702 | 739 | 784 | 836 | 901 |
| 11.00% | 662 | 693 | 730 | 773 | 825 |
| 11.50% | 627 | 653 | 684 | 720 | 763 |
| 12.00% | 596 | 619 | 645 | 676 | 711 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹2,299.95; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 634 · 726 · 840 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.69 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.62 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.28 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 143 | 179 | 187 | 200 | 214 | 229 | 245 | 262 | 281 |
| growth % | 20.2 | 25.1 | 4.7 | 6.9 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 |
| EBITDA | 10 | 26 | 29 | 21 | 22 | 24 | 25 | 27 | 29 |
| margin % | 7.2 | 14.6 | 15.6 | 10.3 | 10.3 | 10.3 | 10.3 | 10.3 | 10.3 |
| less depreciation | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (1) | (1) |
| EBIT | 10 | 26 | 29 | 20 | 22 | 23 | 25 | 26 | 28 |
| less tax on EBIT | (5) | (5) | (5) | (6) | (6) | (7) | |||
| NOPAT | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 22 | |||
| add depreciation | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| less capex | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (1) | (1) | (1) |
| less working-capital build | — | (1) | (1) | (2) | (2) | (2) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (4) | 19 | 26 | — | 15 | 16 | 17 | 19 | 20 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 15 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 12 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 12.2% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 20 | 22 | 23 | 25 | 26 | 28 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 22 | 23 | 25 | 26 | 28 | |
| Profit after tax | 19 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 22 |
| Dividends | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (3) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 61 | 74 | 89 | 104 | 120 | 137 |
| Working capital | 19 | 20 | 22 | 23 | 25 | 26 |
| Net block and other assets | 55 | 55 | 55 | 55 | 55 | 55 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 87 | 101 | 117 | 134 | 152 | 171 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 21 | |
| Investing (capex) | (0) | (0) | (1) | (1) | (1) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (3) | |
| Net change in cash | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 15 | 16 | 17 | 19 | 20 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 7% | 10.3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹730 | (68.3)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.