Models
ADF FOODS LIMITEDADFFOODSFood Products
₹106per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹106implied FY26 P/E 12.7× · EV/EBITDA 9.0×
Against CMP ₹270.15−60.6%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3190%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹80₹160
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹153₹347
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 111 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,000 |
| Enterprise value | 1,112 |
| less net debt | 57 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,169 |
| ÷ 10.99 crore shares | ₹106 |
90% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 110 | 119 | 130 | 143 | 160 |
| 10.50% | 101 | 108 | 117 | 128 | 141 |
| 11.00% | 93 | 99 | 106 | 115 | 126 |
| 11.50% | 86 | 91 | 97 | 105 | 113 |
| 12.00% | 80 | 84 | 90 | 96 | 103 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹270.15; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 79 · 105 · 135 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.84 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.49 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.07 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 450 | 520 | 590 | 683 | 793 | 919 | 1,066 | 1,237 | 1,435 |
| growth % | 6.9 | 15.6 | 13.3 | 15.9 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 16.0 |
| EBITDA | 81 | 105 | 98 | 124 | 143 | 166 | 193 | 224 | 260 |
| margin % | 17.9 | 20.2 | 16.7 | 18.1 | 18.1 | 18.1 | 18.1 | 18.1 | 18.1 |
| less depreciation | (14) | (16) | (18) | (21) | (25) | (29) | (33) | (38) | (44) |
| EBIT | 67 | 89 | 80 | 103 | 119 | 138 | 160 | 186 | 215 |
| less tax on EBIT | (26) | (30) | (35) | (40) | (47) | (54) | |||
| NOPAT | 77 | 89 | 103 | 120 | 139 | 161 | |||
| add depreciation | 14 | 16 | 18 | 21 | 25 | 29 | 33 | 38 | 44 |
| less capex | (25) | (15) | (41) | (83) | (96) | (92) | (84) | (72) | (53) |
| less working-capital build | — | (31) | (36) | (42) | (48) | (56) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 26 | 54 | (4) | — | (13) | 4 | 27 | 57 | 96 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (13) | 3 | 21 | 40 | 60 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 9, dividends at 14.7% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 103 | 119 | 138 | 160 | 186 | 215 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | |
| Profit before tax | 118 | 137 | 159 | 185 | 215 | |
| Profit after tax | 90 | 89 | 103 | 119 | 138 | 161 |
| Dividends | (13) | (13) | (15) | (18) | (20) | (24) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 66 | 39 | 27 | 36 | 72 | 144 |
| Working capital | 194 | 224 | 260 | 302 | 350 | 406 |
| Net block and other assets | 495 | 567 | 630 | 681 | 715 | 724 |
| Debt | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| Equity | 572 | 647 | 735 | 837 | 955 | 1,092 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 82 | 95 | 111 | 129 | 149 | |
| Investing (capex) | (96) | (92) | (84) | (72) | (53) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (13) | (15) | (18) | (20) | (24) | |
| Net change in cash | (27) | (12) | 9 | 36 | 72 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (14) | 3 | 26 | 57 | 96 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 16% | 18.1% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹106 | (60.6)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.