Models
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₹597per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹597implied FY26 P/E 17.1× · EV/EBITDA 15.6×
Against CMP ₹1,087.00−45.0%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies24.8%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3176%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹463₹866
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹708₹1,225
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 4,083 |
| PV of terminal value | 13,135 |
| Enterprise value | 17,217 |
| less net debt | 58 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 17,275 |
| ÷ 28.92 crore shares | ₹597 |
76% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 617 | 662 | 717 | 783 | 866 |
| 10.50% | 569 | 607 | 652 | 705 | 770 |
| 11.00% | 529 | 560 | 597 | 641 | 693 |
| 11.50% | 494 | 520 | 552 | 588 | 631 |
| 12.00% | 463 | 486 | 512 | 543 | 578 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,087.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 494 · 595 · 716 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.64 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.53 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.49 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,227 | 1,353 | 1,685 | 1,845 | 2,020 | 2,212 | 2,422 | 2,653 | 2,905 |
| growth % | (5.1) | 10.3 | 24.5 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9.5 |
| EBITDA | 705 | 761 | 989 | 1,102 | 1,206 | 1,321 | 1,446 | 1,584 | 1,734 |
| margin % | 57.5 | 56.2 | 58.7 | 59.7 | 59.7 | 59.7 | 59.7 | 59.7 | 59.7 |
| less depreciation | (34) | (35) | (40) | (46) | (51) | (55) | (61) | (66) | (73) |
| EBIT | 671 | 726 | 949 | 1,056 | 1,156 | 1,265 | 1,386 | 1,517 | 1,661 |
| less tax on EBIT | (243) | (266) | (291) | (319) | (349) | (382) | |||
| NOPAT | 813 | 890 | 974 | 1,067 | 1,168 | 1,279 | |||
| add depreciation | 34 | 35 | 40 | 46 | 51 | 55 | 61 | 66 | 73 |
| less capex | (19) | (31) | (31) | (47) | (53) | (60) | (68) | (77) | (87) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 418 | 654 | 677 | — | 888 | 970 | 1,060 | 1,158 | 1,265 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 843 | 829 | 816 | 803 | 791 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 71% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 1,056 | 1,156 | 1,265 | 1,386 | 1,517 | 1,661 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 1,156 | 1,265 | 1,386 | 1,517 | 1,661 | |
| Profit after tax | 975 | 890 | 974 | 1,067 | 1,168 | 1,279 |
| Dividends | (693) | (632) | (692) | (758) | (829) | (908) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 58 | 314 | 593 | 895 | 1,223 | 1,579 |
| Working capital | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Net block and other assets | 4,357 | 4,359 | 4,363 | 4,371 | 4,381 | 4,396 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 4,042 | 4,300 | 4,582 | 4,892 | 5,230 | 5,601 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 940 | 1,030 | 1,127 | 1,235 | 1,352 | |
| Investing (capex) | (53) | (60) | (68) | (77) | (87) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (632) | (692) | (758) | (829) | (908) | |
| Net change in cash | 256 | 278 | 302 | 328 | 356 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 888 | 970 | 1,060 | 1,158 | 1,265 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 9.5% | 59.7% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹597 | (45.0)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.