Models
ADITYA BIRLA LIFES BRAN LABLBLRetailing
₹29per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹29implied FY26 P/E 19.7× · EV/EBITDA 3.3×
Against CMP ₹83.52−65.8%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3148%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹23₹38
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹83₹151
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 2,212 |
| PV of terminal value | 2,016 |
| Enterprise value | 4,228 |
| less net debt | (743) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 3,485 |
| ÷ 122.05 crore shares | ₹29 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 29 | 31 | 33 | 35 | 38 |
| 10.50% | 28 | 29 | 31 | 33 | 35 |
| 11.00% | 26 | 27 | 29 | 30 | 32 |
| 11.50% | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 30 |
| 12.00% | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 28 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹83.52; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 11 · 28 · 45 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.98 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.14 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.09 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 8,396 | 9,067 | 9,793 | 10,576 | 11,422 | 12,336 |
| growth % | — | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| EBITDA | 1,295 | 1,396 | 1,508 | 1,629 | 1,759 | 1,900 |
| margin % | 15.4 | 15.4 | 15.4 | 15.4 | 15.4 | 15.4 |
| less depreciation | (795) | (861) | (930) | (1,005) | (1,085) | (1,172) |
| EBIT | 500 | 535 | 578 | 624 | 674 | 728 |
| less tax on EBIT | (111) | (119) | (129) | (139) | (150) | (162) |
| NOPAT | 388 | 416 | 449 | 485 | 524 | 566 |
| add depreciation | 795 | 861 | 930 | 1,005 | 1,085 | 1,172 |
| less capex | (326) | (354) | (566) | (809) | (1,088) | (1,406) |
| less working-capital build | — | (101) | (109) | (118) | (127) | (137) |
| Free cash flow to firm | — | 823 | 705 | 563 | 394 | 194 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |
| Present value | 781 | 603 | 434 | 273 | 121 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 834, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 500 | 535 | 578 | 624 | 674 | 728 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (67) | (67) | (67) | (67) | (67) | |
| Profit before tax | 468 | 511 | 557 | 607 | 661 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 364 | 397 | 433 | 472 | 514 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 91 | 862 | 1,515 | 2,026 | 2,368 | 2,510 |
| Working capital | 1,258 | 1,359 | 1,468 | 1,585 | 1,712 | 1,849 |
| Net block and other assets | 7,371 | 6,863 | 6,498 | 6,303 | 6,305 | 6,540 |
| Debt | 834 | 834 | 834 | 834 | 834 | 834 |
| Equity | 1,412 | 1,776 | 2,173 | 2,606 | 3,078 | 3,592 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 1,125 | 1,219 | 1,320 | 1,430 | 1,549 | |
| Investing (capex) | (354) | (566) | (809) | (1,088) | (1,406) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 771 | 653 | 511 | 342 | 142 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 771 | 653 | 511 | 342 | 142 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 8% | 15.4% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹29 | (65.8)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.