Models
ADITYA BIRLA REAL EST LTDABRELRealty
₹-204per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹(204)implied FY26 P/E —× · EV/EBITDA (5.2)×
Against CMP ₹1,280.00−116.0%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3179%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹(246)₹(121)
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹1,080₹1,965
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 409 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,581 |
| Enterprise value | 1,990 |
| less net debt | (4,274) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | (2,284) |
| ÷ 11.17 crore shares | ₹(204) |
79% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | (198) | (184) | (167) | (147) | (121) |
| 10.50% | (213) | (201) | (188) | (171) | (151) |
| 11.00% | (226) | (216) | (204) | (191) | (175) |
| 11.50% | (237) | (228) | (219) | (207) | (194) |
| 12.00% | (246) | (239) | (231) | (221) | (210) |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,280.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (224) · (205) · (177) |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −1.00 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.01 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.01 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4,800 | 4,514 | 1,219 | 407 | 387 | 367 | 349 | 332 | 315 |
| growth % | 16.2 | (6.0) | (73.0) | (66.6) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) |
| EBITDA | 662 | 661 | (94) | (384) | (365) | (347) | (329) | (313) | (297) |
| margin % | 13.8 | 14.6 | (7.7) | (94.3) | (94.3) | (94.3) | (94.3) | (94.3) | (94.3) |
| less depreciation | (227) | (210) | (64) | (68) | (64) | (61) | (58) | (55) | (52) |
| EBIT | 434 | 451 | (158) | (451) | (429) | (408) | (387) | (368) | (349) |
| less tax on EBIT | 114 | 108 | 103 | 97 | 93 | 88 | |||
| NOPAT | (338) | (321) | (305) | (290) | (275) | (261) | |||
| add depreciation | 227 | 210 | 64 | 68 | 64 | 61 | 58 | 55 | 52 |
| less capex | (121) | (181) | (286) | (212) | (202) | (162) | (126) | (93) | (63) |
| less working-capital build | — | 521 | 495 | 470 | 447 | 424 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 150 | (496) | (1,580) | — | 62 | 89 | 112 | 134 | 152 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 59 | 76 | 87 | 93 | 95 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 5,636, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | (451) | (429) | (408) | (387) | (368) | (349) |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (451) | (451) | (451) | (451) | (451) | |
| Profit before tax | (880) | (858) | (838) | (819) | (800) | |
| Profit after tax | (103) | (658) | (642) | (627) | (613) | (599) |
| Dividends | (22) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 1,362 | 1,087 | 838 | 613 | 409 | 224 |
| Working capital | 10,416 | 9,895 | 9,400 | 8,930 | 8,484 | 8,060 |
| Net block and other assets | 8,455 | 8,592 | 8,693 | 8,761 | 8,799 | 8,810 |
| Debt | 5,636 | 5,636 | 5,636 | 5,636 | 5,636 | 5,636 |
| Equity | 3,699 | 3,041 | 2,398 | 1,771 | 1,159 | 560 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | 0 | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | (73) | (87) | (99) | (111) | (122) | |
| Investing (capex) | (202) | (162) | (126) | (93) | (63) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (275) | (249) | (225) | (204) | (185) | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (275) | (249) | (225) | (204) | (185) | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -5% | -94.3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹(204) | (116.0)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.