Models
ADITYA ULTRA STEEL LTDAUSL
₹21per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹21implied FY26 P/E —× · EV/EBITDA 11.9×
Against CMP ₹23.35−11.1%close of 2026-09-09
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3183%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹8₹46
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹17₹40
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 22 |
| PV of terminal value | 108 |
| Enterprise value | 130 |
| less net debt | (78) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 52 |
| ÷ 2.48 crore shares | ₹21 |
83% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 23 | 27 | 32 | 38 | 46 |
| 10.50% | 18 | 22 | 26 | 31 | 37 |
| 11.00% | 14 | 17 | 21 | 25 | 30 |
| 11.50% | 11 | 13 | 16 | 20 | 24 |
| 12.00% | 8 | 10 | 13 | 16 | 19 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹23.35; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 14 · 21 · 30 |
| Draws below the CMP | 65% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.88 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.46 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 585 | 406 | 385 | 366 | 348 | 330 | 314 |
| growth % | — | (30.7) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) |
| EBITDA | — | 11 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 8 |
| margin % | — | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 |
| less depreciation | — | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) |
| EBIT | — | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 |
| less tax on EBIT | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | |
| NOPAT | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | |
| add depreciation | — | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| less capex | (3) | (14) | (14) | (10) | (7) | (4) | (2) |
| less working-capital build | — | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | |
| Free cash flow to firm | (47) | — | 1 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 10 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||
| Present value | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 6 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 79, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 |
| Interest at 10.1% on debt | (8) | (8) | (8) | (8) | (8) | |
| Profit before tax | 0 | 0 | (0) | (1) | (1) | |
| Profit after tax | 4 | 0 | 0 | (0) | (1) | (1) |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 1 | (4) | (6) | (6) | (4) | 0 |
| Working capital | 131 | 124 | 118 | 112 | 106 | 101 |
| Net block and other assets | 61 | 73 | 82 | 87 | 90 | 90 |
| Debt | 79 | 79 | 79 | 79 | 79 | 79 |
| Equity | 103 | 104 | 104 | 103 | 103 | 102 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 9 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 6 | |
| Investing (capex) | (14) | (10) | (7) | (4) | (2) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (5) | (2) | 0 | 2 | 4 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (5) | (2) | 0 | 2 | 4 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -5% | 2.7% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹21 | (11.1)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.