Models
ADITYA VISION LIMITEDAVLRetailing
₹57per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹57implied FY26 P/E 5.3× · EV/EBITDA 4.6×
Against CMP ₹619.00−90.8%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3176%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹39₹93
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹437₹705
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 250 |
| PV of terminal value | 786 |
| Enterprise value | 1,036 |
| less net debt | (300) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 736 |
| ÷ 12.91 crore shares | ₹57 |
76% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 60 | 66 | 73 | 82 | 93 |
| 10.50% | 53 | 58 | 64 | 71 | 80 |
| 11.00% | 48 | 52 | 57 | 63 | 70 |
| 11.50% | 43 | 47 | 51 | 56 | 62 |
| 12.00% | 39 | 42 | 46 | 50 | 55 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹619.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (3) · 57 · 104 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.73 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.64 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.16 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,322 | 1,743 | 2,260 | 2,672 | 3,153 | 3,720 | 4,390 | 5,180 | 6,112 |
| growth % | 47.1 | 31.8 | 29.6 | 18.2 | 18.0 | 18.0 | 18.0 | 18.0 | 18.0 |
| EBITDA | 133 | 167 | 204 | 226 | 268 | 316 | 373 | 440 | 520 |
| margin % | 10.1 | 9.6 | 9.0 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 |
| less depreciation | (20) | (29) | (37) | (40) | (47) | (56) | (66) | (78) | (92) |
| EBIT | 113 | 139 | 167 | 186 | 221 | 260 | 307 | 363 | 428 |
| less tax on EBIT | (47) | (56) | (66) | (78) | (92) | (109) | |||
| NOPAT | 139 | 164 | 194 | 229 | 270 | 319 | |||
| add depreciation | 20 | 29 | 37 | 40 | 47 | 56 | 66 | 78 | 92 |
| less capex | (30) | (34) | (37) | (35) | (41) | (53) | (68) | (87) | (110) |
| less working-capital build | — | (116) | (137) | (161) | (190) | (225) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (13) | (41) | (78) | — | 55 | 60 | 65 | 71 | 76 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 52 | 51 | 50 | 49 | 47 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 331, dividends at 10.8% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 186 | 221 | 260 | 307 | 363 | 428 |
| Interest at 12.8% on debt | (42) | (42) | (42) | (42) | (42) | |
| Profit before tax | 178 | 218 | 265 | 320 | 386 | |
| Profit after tax | 117 | 133 | 162 | 197 | 239 | 287 |
| Dividends | (13) | (14) | (18) | (21) | (26) | (31) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 30 | 39 | 50 | 63 | 76 | 89 |
| Working capital | 645 | 761 | 897 | 1,059 | 1,249 | 1,474 |
| Net block and other assets | 796 | 790 | 787 | 789 | 798 | 816 |
| Debt | 331 | 331 | 331 | 331 | 331 | 331 |
| Equity | 688 | 807 | 952 | 1,128 | 1,341 | 1,597 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 64 | 82 | 102 | 126 | 154 | |
| Investing (capex) | (41) | (53) | (68) | (87) | (110) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (14) | (18) | (21) | (26) | (31) | |
| Net change in cash | 9 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 13 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 23 | 28 | 34 | 39 | 44 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 18% | 8.5% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹57 | (90.8)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.