Models
ADVANCE AGROLIFE LIMITEDADVANCEFertilizers & Agrochemicals
₹46per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹46implied FY26 P/E 5.4× · EV/EBITDA 6.1×
Against CMP ₹118.85−61.5%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3189%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹30₹77
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹84₹154
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 44 |
| PV of terminal value | 341 |
| Enterprise value | 385 |
| less net debt | (91) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 294 |
| ÷ 6.43 crore shares | ₹46 |
89% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 48 | 53 | 60 | 67 | 77 |
| 10.50% | 42 | 47 | 52 | 58 | 66 |
| 11.00% | 38 | 41 | 46 | 51 | 57 |
| 11.50% | 34 | 37 | 40 | 45 | 50 |
| 12.00% | 30 | 33 | 36 | 40 | 44 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹118.85; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 28 · 45 · 63 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.83 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.44 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.28 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 638 | 689 | 744 | 803 | 868 | 937 |
| growth % | — | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| EBITDA | 64 | 69 | 74 | 80 | 87 | 94 |
| margin % | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 |
| less depreciation | (11) | (12) | (13) | (14) | (15) | (16) |
| EBIT | 53 | 57 | 62 | 67 | 72 | 78 |
| less tax on EBIT | (14) | (15) | (16) | (18) | (19) | (21) |
| NOPAT | 39 | 42 | 45 | 49 | 53 | 57 |
| add depreciation | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
| less capex | (39) | (42) | (38) | (33) | (27) | (19) |
| less working-capital build | — | (15) | (17) | (18) | (19) | (21) |
| Free cash flow to firm | — | (4) | 3 | 12 | 22 | 33 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |
| Present value | (4) | 3 | 9 | 15 | 21 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 96, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 53 | 57 | 62 | 67 | 72 | 78 |
| Interest at 9% on debt | (9) | (9) | (9) | (9) | (9) | |
| Profit before tax | 49 | 53 | 58 | 63 | 69 | |
| Profit after tax | 35 | 36 | 39 | 43 | 46 | 51 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 5 | (5) | (8) | (2) | 13 | 40 |
| Working capital | 192 | 208 | 224 | 242 | 262 | 283 |
| Net block and other assets | 427 | 457 | 483 | 502 | 513 | 517 |
| Debt | 96 | 96 | 96 | 96 | 96 | 96 |
| Equity | 310 | 345 | 384 | 427 | 473 | 524 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 32 | 35 | 38 | 42 | 46 | |
| Investing (capex) | (42) | (38) | (33) | (27) | (19) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (10) | (3) | 6 | 15 | 27 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (10) | (3) | 6 | 15 | 27 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 8% | 10% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹46 | (61.5)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.