₹266per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹266implied FY26 P/E 17.9× · EV/EBITDA 12.0×
Against CMP ₹293.50−9.4%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies22.7%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3179%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹206₹386
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹252₹419
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 608 |
| PV of terminal value | 2,281 |
| Enterprise value | 2,889 |
| less net debt | 88 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 2,977 |
| ÷ 11.20 crore shares | ₹266 |
79% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 275 | 295 | 319 | 349 | 386 |
| 10.50% | 253 | 270 | 290 | 314 | 343 |
| 11.00% | 235 | 249 | 266 | 285 | 309 |
| 11.50% | 219 | 231 | 245 | 262 | 281 |
| 12.00% | 206 | 216 | 228 | 242 | 258 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹293.50; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 209 · 263 · 329 |
| Draws below the CMP | 73% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.76 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.52 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.30 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 541 | 624 | 637 | 746 | 873 | 1,021 | 1,194 | 1,397 | 1,635 |
| growth % | 2.1 | 15.4 | 2.1 | 17.1 | 17.0 | 17.0 | 17.0 | 17.0 | 17.0 |
| EBITDA | 152 | 189 | 194 | 240 | 281 | 329 | 385 | 450 | 526 |
| margin % | 28.2 | 30.3 | 30.5 | 32.2 | 32.2 | 32.2 | 32.2 | 32.2 | 32.2 |
| less depreciation | (35) | (35) | (37) | (40) | (47) | (55) | (64) | (75) | (88) |
| EBIT | 117 | 154 | 158 | 200 | 234 | 274 | 320 | 375 | 438 |
| less tax on EBIT | (51) | (59) | (69) | (81) | (95) | (111) | |||
| NOPAT | 150 | 175 | 204 | 239 | 280 | 327 | |||
| add depreciation | 35 | 35 | 37 | 40 | 47 | 55 | 64 | 75 | 88 |
| less capex | (38) | (42) | (34) | (52) | (61) | (70) | (81) | (92) | (106) |
| less working-capital build | — | (48) | (56) | (66) | (77) | (90) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 102 | 99 | 109 | — | 113 | 133 | 157 | 186 | 220 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 107 | 114 | 121 | 129 | 137 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 21, dividends at 35.4% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 200 | 234 | 274 | 320 | 375 | 438 |
| Interest at 12.5% on debt | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | |
| Profit before tax | 231 | 271 | 318 | 372 | 436 | |
| Profit after tax | 169 | 173 | 202 | 237 | 278 | 325 |
| Dividends | (60) | (61) | (72) | (84) | (98) | (115) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 109 | 158 | 218 | 289 | 375 | 478 |
| Working capital | 282 | 330 | 387 | 452 | 529 | 619 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,448 | 1,462 | 1,477 | 1,493 | 1,510 | 1,527 |
| Debt | 21 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 21 |
| Equity | 1,683 | 1,795 | 1,926 | 2,079 | 2,258 | 2,468 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 172 | 201 | 236 | 276 | 324 | |
| Investing (capex) | (61) | (70) | (81) | (92) | (106) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (61) | (72) | (84) | (98) | (115) | |
| Net change in cash | 50 | 60 | 71 | 86 | 103 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 111 | 131 | 155 | 184 | 218 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 17% | 32.2% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹266 | (9.4)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.