Models
ADVENT HOTELS INTERNATI LADVENTHTLLeisure Services
₹232per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹232implied FY26 P/E 105.0× · EV/EBITDA 12.5×
Against CMP ₹128.31+80.9%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies0.2%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3173%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹151₹393
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹120₹345
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 556 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,469 |
| Enterprise value | 2,025 |
| less net debt | (773) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,252 |
| ÷ 5.39 crore shares | ₹232 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 244 | 271 | 304 | 344 | 393 |
| 10.50% | 215 | 238 | 265 | 297 | 336 |
| 11.00% | 191 | 210 | 232 | 258 | 290 |
| 11.50% | 170 | 186 | 204 | 226 | 252 |
| 12.00% | 151 | 165 | 181 | 199 | 221 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹128.31; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 167 · 230 · 307 |
| Draws below the CMP | 1% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.63 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.61 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.40 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 388 | 419 | 452 | 488 | 527 | 570 |
| growth % | — | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| EBITDA | 161 | 175 | 189 | 204 | 220 | 237 |
| margin % | 41.7 | 41.7 | 41.7 | 41.7 | 41.7 | 41.7 |
| less depreciation | (30) | (32) | (34) | (37) | (40) | (43) |
| EBIT | 132 | 143 | 154 | 166 | 180 | 194 |
| less tax on EBIT | (30) | (32) | (35) | (38) | (41) | (44) |
| NOPAT | 102 | 110 | 119 | 129 | 139 | 150 |
| add depreciation | 30 | 32 | 34 | 37 | 40 | 43 |
| less capex | 0 | 0 | (10) | (22) | (36) | (52) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Free cash flow to firm | — | 142 | 143 | 144 | 143 | 141 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |
| Present value | 135 | 122 | 111 | 99 | 88 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 799, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 132 | 143 | 154 | 166 | 180 | 194 |
| Interest at 6.4% on debt | (51) | (51) | (51) | (51) | (51) | |
| Profit before tax | 92 | 103 | 115 | 129 | 143 | |
| Profit after tax | 63 | 71 | 80 | 89 | 99 | 111 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 26 | 129 | 232 | 336 | 440 | 542 |
| Working capital | (29) | (29) | (29) | (29) | (29) | (29) |
| Net block and other assets | 3,997 | 3,965 | 3,941 | 3,926 | 3,922 | 3,930 |
| Debt | 799 | 799 | 799 | 799 | 799 | 799 |
| Equity | 1,022 | 1,093 | 1,173 | 1,262 | 1,362 | 1,472 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 103 | 114 | 126 | 140 | 154 | |
| Investing (capex) | 0 | (10) | (22) | (36) | (52) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 103 | 104 | 104 | 103 | 102 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 103 | 104 | 104 | 103 | 102 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 8% | 41.7% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹232 | 80.9% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.