Models
AEGIS LOGISTICS LIMITEDAEGISLOGGas
₹910per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹910implied FY26 P/E 25.5× · EV/EBITDA 21.9×
Against CMP ₹1,353.00−32.7%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies33.6%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3185%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹683₹1,364
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹576₹1,498
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 4,798 |
| PV of terminal value | 27,045 |
| Enterprise value | 31,843 |
| less net debt | 95 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 31,938 |
| ÷ 35.10 crore shares | ₹910 |
85% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 942 | 1,019 | 1,111 | 1,223 | 1,364 |
| 10.50% | 862 | 926 | 1,001 | 1,092 | 1,202 |
| 11.00% | 794 | 847 | 910 | 984 | 1,073 |
| 11.50% | 734 | 780 | 833 | 894 | 967 |
| 12.00% | 683 | 722 | 767 | 819 | 879 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,353.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 678 · 904 · 1,195 |
| Draws below the CMP | 97% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.76 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.45 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.41 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 8,627 | 7,046 | 6,764 | 8,333 | 10,250 | 12,607 | 15,507 | 19,074 | 23,461 |
| growth % | 86.3 | (18.3) | (4.0) | 23.2 | 23.0 | 23.0 | 23.0 | 23.0 | 23.0 |
| EBITDA | 672 | 923 | 1,098 | 1,452 | 1,783 | 2,194 | 2,698 | 3,319 | 4,082 |
| margin % | 7.8 | 13.1 | 16.2 | 17.4 | 17.4 | 17.4 | 17.4 | 17.4 | 17.4 |
| less depreciation | (126) | (135) | (152) | (199) | (246) | (303) | (372) | (458) | (563) |
| EBIT | 546 | 787 | 946 | 1,253 | 1,537 | 1,891 | 2,326 | 2,861 | 3,519 |
| less tax on EBIT | (286) | (351) | (431) | (530) | (652) | (802) | |||
| NOPAT | 967 | 1,187 | 1,460 | 1,796 | 2,209 | 2,717 | |||
| add depreciation | 126 | 135 | 152 | 199 | 246 | 303 | 372 | 458 | 563 |
| less capex | (538) | (616) | (945) | (821) | (1,015) | (1,027) | (991) | (884) | (676) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (180) | 39 | (387) | — | 418 | 736 | 1,177 | 1,782 | 2,604 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 397 | 629 | 907 | 1,237 | 1,628 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 2,417, dividends at 42% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 1,253 | 1,537 | 1,891 | 2,326 | 2,861 | 3,519 |
| Interest at 5.5% on debt | (133) | (133) | (133) | (133) | (133) | |
| Profit before tax | 1,405 | 1,758 | 2,193 | 2,728 | 3,386 | |
| Profit after tax | 898 | 1,084 | 1,357 | 1,693 | 2,106 | 2,614 |
| Dividends | (377) | (455) | (570) | (711) | (885) | (1,098) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 2,512 | 2,372 | 2,435 | 2,798 | 3,593 | 4,997 |
| Working capital | (98) | (98) | (98) | (98) | (98) | (98) |
| Net block and other assets | 12,077 | 12,846 | 13,570 | 14,189 | 14,615 | 14,728 |
| Debt | 2,417 | 2,417 | 2,417 | 2,417 | 2,417 | 2,417 |
| Equity | 8,784 | 9,413 | 10,200 | 11,182 | 12,404 | 13,920 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 1,330 | 1,660 | 2,065 | 2,564 | 3,177 | |
| Investing (capex) | (1,015) | (1,027) | (991) | (884) | (676) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (455) | (570) | (711) | (885) | (1,098) | |
| Net change in cash | (140) | 63 | 363 | 795 | 1,404 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 316 | 633 | 1,074 | 1,680 | 2,502 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 23% | 17.4% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹910 | (32.7)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.